Circle Position Liquidation Record and Reason Analysis
Trading Operations: Liquidated Circle positions in two tranches at 83 and 112.
Personal reasons for liquidation (all subjective views): 1. Disconnect between narrative and reality: Circle's recent rally has been driven by the AI Agent payment narrative, but AI Agent payment business is still in a very early stage. The issuance volume of stablecoin USDC being truly driven by AI Agent trading volume is unlikely to happen within less than 2-3 years. What's being traded now is optimistic expectations about AI.
2. Limited market positioning: Stablecoin payments for AI Agents are only a niche market. Stablecoin payments will mainly be used in cross-border scenarios, while for AI Agents, local payment scenarios are the largest opportunity. The most reasonable approach for local payments is combining fiat currency + local applications. Cross-border Agent payment scenarios are not the primary problem being solved currently.
3. Overvaluation: Circle's current market cap has reached $28 billion, which is too expensive compared to its net profit of over $100 million per year. I believe the current price already reflects the valuation when USDC issuance volume increases 10x.
Circle Position Liquidation Record and Reason Analysis
Trading Operations:
Liquidated Circle positions in two tranches at 83 and 112.
Personal reasons for liquidation (all subjective views):
1. Disconnect between narrative and reality:
Circle's recent rally has been driven by the AI Agent payment narrative, but AI Agent payment business is still in a very early stage. The issuance volume of stablecoin USDC being truly driven by AI Agent trading volume is unlikely to happen within less than 2-3 years. What's being traded now is optimistic expectations about AI.
2. Limited market positioning:
Stablecoin payments for AI Agents are only a niche market. Stablecoin payments will mainly be used in cross-border scenarios, while for AI Agents, local payment scenarios are the largest opportunity. The most reasonable approach for local payments is combining fiat currency + local applications. Cross-border Agent payment scenarios are not the primary problem being solved currently.
3. Overvaluation:
Circle's current market cap has reached $28 billion, which is too expensive compared to its net profit of over $100 million per year. I believe the current price already reflects the valuation when USDC issuance volume increases 10x.