3月3日消息，美国预测市场行业正面临新的政治与监管压力。由南卡罗来纳州共和党众议员Mick Mulvaney牵头的联盟“Gambling Is Not an Investment（赌博不是投资）”近日成立，该组织呼吁美国政府加强执法，限制预测市场平台的扩张，并指责这些平台正在模糊投资与赌博之间的界限。
该联盟表示，一些预测市场平台允许用户对体育赛事或重大政治事件进行押注，但这些活动在部分美国州仍被视为非法博彩。Mick Mulvaney在声明中指出，无论这些产品被称为“交易”“投资”还是“预测”，其本质仍属于博彩行为，理应遵守美国各州及部落博彩法律框架。他警告称，将体育博彩包装成金融产品不仅可能误导消费者，还可能削弱现有的责任博彩保护体系，并影响依赖博彩税收的社区公共服务资金来源。
与此同时，美国部分议员正在推动更严格的监管措施。参议员Chris Murphy表示，他计划提出新的立法，限制预测市场上的某些类型押注。Murphy的表态源于近期一项引发争议的报道——有新注册账户通过准确预测美国袭击伊朗的时间而获得数百万美元收益。Murphy称，这类事件凸显预测市场潜在的监管漏洞，并质疑是否存在与政治或军事信息相关的内幕获利行为。
不过，预测市场行业也在积极反击。多个行业参与者已成立预测市场联盟，对美国部分州政府的执法行动提出法律挑战。这些平台认为，美国各州正试图越权监管，而根据现行法规，预测市场应主要由美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管。
CFTC主席Michael Selig近期公开表示，该机构正在采取措施确保预测市场在美国合法发展，并维护衍生品市场的透明度与稳定性。他强调，如果有机构或州政府挑战CFTC的监管权威，相关争议将通过法院解决。
尽管监管争议持续升级，美国预测市场行业仍保持快速增长态势。业内消息显示，一些平台正在探索新的产品模式，包括结合人工智能数据分析的“注意力市场”等创新业务，显示出该行业在政策压力下仍试图扩大市场影响力。
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