Circle Position Liquidation Record and Causal Analysis

Trading Operations:
Liquidated Circle positions in two batches at levels 83 and 112.
Personal reasons for liquidation (all subjective views):
1. Disconnect between narrative and reality:
Circle's recent surge is driven by the AI Agent payment narrative, but AI Agent payments are still in a very early stage. The issuance volume of stablecoin USDC being truly driven by AI Agent trading volume is impossible within 2-3 years. What's being traded now is just optimistic expectations about AI.
2. Market positioning limitations:
Stablecoin payments are only a niche market for AI Agents. Stablecoin payments will primarily be used in cross-border scenarios, while for AI Agents, domestic payment scenarios are the real pie. The most rational approach for domestic payments is combining fiat currency + local applications. Cross-border Agent payment scenarios are not the primary problem being solved currently.
3. Excessive valuation:
Circle's current market cap has reached $28 billion. Compared to over $100 million in annual net profit over 1 year, it's too expensive. I personally believe the current price has already reflected valuations at a 10x increase in USDC issuance volume.