According to reports, Trump plans to control the Strait of Hormuz by "force". The war may last much longer～

When this news came out, the market's first reaction was basically two words: extended risk～
If the situation really evolves toward "military intervention", then the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz will be difficult to dissipate in the short term. What does this mean for the market? Simple: risk premium won't fall quickly.
From a macroeconomic transmission perspective, once the strait faces prolonged tension, high oil prices → sticky inflation → rates difficult to lower, this chain will continue to suppress the valuation space of risk assets. In other words, the problem is not whether there will be volatility, but that volatility may be "extended in time dimension".
From the perspective of Dow Theory, this looks more like an external shock variable in a major-level trend, which will amplify oscillations rather than immediately determine direction.
So the focus ahead is not on guessing when it will end, but on observing one thing:
Is this game play a "short drama", or a "series"～
#IXIC