Middle-Aged Retail Investor's Self-Help Guide · March 21
🪙 Crypto
BTC is currently trading around $70,400, reached a high of $75,000 this week before being knocked back. ETH is approximately $2,148, XRP around $1.45. The Fear & Greed Index is at 11—indicating extreme fear.
The biggest news this week is actually a major bullish development: SEC and CFTC jointly officially classified ETH, XRP, SOL, and 16 other cryptocurrencies as "digital commodities" with full legal effect. Ten years of regulatory clarity have finally arrived, but this achievement was completely overshadowed by the FOMC's sell-the-fact dump.
FOMC results: interest rates remain unchanged, the median dot plot still only expects one rate cut in 2026, and Powell admitted that four or five committee members shifted from expecting two cuts to only one. Core inflation expectations have been raised to 2.7%, and Powell stated that inflation progress "has been disappointing." BTC responded with a 4% drop, and altcoins fell even more sharply—this is the eighth time the textbook FOMC sell-the-fact scenario has been validated.
Good news: at a Fear & Greed Index level of 11, this situation has occurred 23 times in the past, with an average return of +12.4% over the following 30 days [Blockchain Magazine]. However, past patterns do not guarantee future results; extreme fear could persist for several more weeks.
Macro
The Iran conflict has entered its third week. Trump said, "Iran wants to talk but I don't want to talk right now; conditions aren't good enough." Oil prices experienced volatile swings this week, with Brent crude briefly rising above $100 before falling back. Goldman Sachs predicts that in Q4, prices could retreat to the $70s. Ceasefire news could emerge at any time or be delayed—this remains the biggest uncertainty in the current market.
🇺🇸 US Stocks
All three major indices declined this week: Dow down 1.01%, Nasdaq down 0.98%, S&P 500 down 0.80%. The market remained under pressure after the FOMC, but falling oil prices helped narrow the losses. The S&P 500 is about 5% below its high at the start of the year.
🇨🇳 A-shares
Yesterday (Friday), the Shanghai Composite Index broke below 4,000 points, closing at 3,957, hitting a new low for the year, with over 4,700 stocks in the red. Non-ferrous metals led declines with a 6.1% drop, while coal and petrochemical sectors bucked the trend, rising against the overall market. Sector divergence is extremely pronounced.
600392 Shenghe Resources and 000751 Zinc Industry were both hammered along with the non-ferrous sector this week, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. When the war ends, risk appetite will recover, and non-ferrous metals will be among the first beneficiaries. Selling now at emotional lows is just handing over chips—patience will pay off.
Today’s retail investor quote: The biggest crypto regulatory win in history was completely buried by a news item that was entirely expected. Markets never follow the script—good news takes time to ferment, while bad news hits you first. Those who can hold on will see the delayed arrival of spring.🌱
*This is not investment advice. If you lose money, don’t come blaming me.*
