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Data Analysis: Is Trump's strategic reserve plan the turning point of Bitcoin's price?
Author: Bravos Research
Compiled by DeepTech TechFlow
Trump officially announced the establishment of a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, will this be a turning point for Bitcoin?
The United States currently holds gold reserves of $748 billion, while the market value of bitcoin is about $1.6 trillion.
If the government establishes reserves similar to gold, it may drive up the price of Bitcoin by 50%
I remember that between September 2024 (before the election) and December 2024 (after Trump's victory), Bitcoin surged by 94%. At that time, rumors about Bitcoin reserves had already begun to ferment.
This means that the narrative of reserves may have been digested by the market in advance. At the same time, Bitcoin is now facing other risks, such as the sharp drop in the US stock market in the past month.
However, we still believe that the importance of the reserve announcement may exceed expectations, and this move may lay the foundation for a big rally in Bitcoin in 2025. After all, the United States is not the only country with strategic reserves.
The total global gold reserves are about $2 trillion, which exceeds the market value of Bitcoin. In addition, the US government holding Bitcoin adds credibility to this asset class, and the prosperity of Bitcoin is built on trust and confidence.
Since December 2022, the bull market of Bitcoin has been mainly driven by institutional adoption. The launch of Bitcoin ETF in November 2023 has triggered huge optimism, and since then, Bitcoin has risen by 85%.
In our view, this is very similar to the adoption of gold in the early 2000s: the first gold ETF in the United States was launched in November 2004, marking the beginning of a 400% bull market in the following years.
But the bull market in gold did not happen overnight. The rise is gradual, and there have been multiple pullbacks during this period.
If we compare the bull market of gold in the 2000s with the current rise of Bitcoin, the patterns of the two are very similar. This pullback may be painful, but it does not seem to negate the major trend adopted by institutions.