Analysts issue a warning of 'falling knife' for ETH, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate likely to continue to decline

On March 13, according to Cointelegraph, today's ETH/BTC Exchange Rate fell by more than 1.5%, reaching 0.0224, the lowest level since May 2020. Analysts predict that there may be further declines in the coming weeks. This fall continues the long-term falling trend since June 2017, when it reached a historical high of 0.156, with a cumulative decline of over 85%, highlighting the continued weakness of Ethereum against BTC. In the two-week period of the ETH/BTC chart, the momentum indicator for measuring Overbought/Oversold assets - the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to a historical low of 23.32. Usually, when RSI falls below 30, it enters the Oversold zone, which may trigger a price rebound. However, after two months of entering the Oversold state, Ethereum's RSI continues to decline, indicating that its downward trend has not stabilized, but instead is accelerating. Cryptocurrency analyst Alessandro Ottaviani refers to this phenomenon as a 'falling knife' situation, where the asset price falls rapidly, causing buyers trying to catch the bottom to hesitate, and attempting to buy at a low level may lead to further losses. To confirm a trend reversal, it is necessary to follow the key resistance level recovery. Traders need to observe the stabilization of RSI and the breakthrough of the key resistance level. Ideally, ETH/BTC needs to start rebounding from the 0.022 BTC position that triggered a 300% rebound in December 2020. If a rebound occurs, this trading pair may rise to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.038 BTC, which coincides with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (50-week EMA). Prior to this, the technical outlook suggests that ETH/BTC may continue the 'falling knife' trajectory, with the next potential support level in the historical range of 0.020-0.016. The lower limit of this range still has about 30% downward potential compared to the current Exchange Rate. The weakness of the ETH/BTC Exchange Rate is not only due to technical factors. Currently, Ethereum is facing strong challenges from competitive Layer 1 public chains such as Solana and SUI, and market attention is beginning to diverge. In addition, BTC's safe-haven properties as 'digital gold' continue to attract fund inflows amid macroeconomic uncertainty, while Ethereum has not fully realized the expected ecological outbreak after the transition to Proof of Stake (PoS), leading to intensified pressure on ETH/BTC due to capital rotation effects.