In the afternoon, I had some time and looked at the market trends and dynamics on the computer.

Quite pleasantly surprised, the number of people following Mr. Yoshikawa Tomyo has exceeded 10,000, which is really unexpected. Thank you for your great support. It's a bit overwhelming to be appreciated by everyone. For an ordinary middle-aged leek, it's quite a fortunate thing to receive everyone's attention and recognition.
Remember when we were in love, girls always liked to ask, why do you like me? What do you like about me? She needs to increase her confidence through these answers. I think at this moment, I will have the same doubts. In 2024, in the currency circle, I not only gained profits, but also gained confidence. Although I am not a full-time financial industry worker, with everyone's encouragement, perhaps the gears of fate will quietly change as a result, maybe I will become the best at cooking in the currency circle, or perhaps I will become the most knowledgeable about the currency circle in the catering circle. Regardless of the future, I still want to thank everyone for allowing me to make a new career choice in 2025. Thank you for liking this tree hole, although I am not sure what I can bring to you, if time and energy permit, I will continue to write.
In the past two days, BTC has been constantly refreshing its record high. I don't think anyone would be surprised. The dynamic atmosphere has not shown much surprise, and there have been no reports in the domestic news. Everything seems so calm. Except for friends who play long and short contracts, most players are likely to have a little worry these days. Why hasn't the altcoin in my hand risen? Will there be a big drop after tonight's meeting? Should I sell the assets in my hand and buy back when there is a pullback?
If you have such thoughts, you are likely to not make money in a bull market. The fundamental reason is that you cannot understand the stages and patterns of the market, and your emotions are affected by price fluctuations and news, which amplifies the anxiety of losses in your heart and leads to a series of shrimp, chicken, and octopus operations.
There will be four seasons of spring, summer, autumn, and winter in a year, and there will be day and night, which is the law of nature. The trend of the currency circle is the same. There will be a bull market and a bear market, which is also the law of nature. The fluctuation of the market, the rise and fall, and the consolidation are all normal. There is no trend of only rise and no fall, nor is there a trend of only fall and no rise. You cannot change any trend in the market, you can only passively accept it. The only thing that can be changed is that you must accept the baptism of the market, which is the most basic and objective cognition.
When you face market fluctuations, are you calm or anxious? This mainly depends on our self-awareness and understanding of market trends. Just like when spring comes, just as a late spring frost won't change the decision of a farmer to plant crops. So in my cognitive system, there is no perfect trade. In spot trading, I rarely focus on specific price points, but on specific price ranges. I don't pursue profit in every trade, but I focus on the long-term investment return. In a dynamic from two years ago, I also tested my trading personality. I tend to be a conservative and cautious trader, and with enough self-awareness, I choose medium to long-term trades that suit me.
Everything has a price, and the different emotions at each stage, and the different results, are the costs of our individual choices. Buying is afraid of a crash, selling is afraid of missing out on substantial profits, seeing an uptrend makes us believe it will fall later, seeing a significant market correction makes us believe it will continue to plummet. These are all our own emotional experiences. But the market doesn't care about our emotions, whether we make money or lose money, or how our current situation is. The only constant in the market is uncertainty.
Once we have these emotions, let's ask ourselves honestly whether we have approached our trading decisions with objectivity and rationality. I have always believed that in the high-risk market of the cryptocurrency industry, we must clearly define our own ability boundaries and determine what we are capable of and what we are suited for. Focus on what we are good at, rather than solely on the desire for financial gain.
That being said, in this society, who doesn't want to make money? Everyone who comes to the cryptocurrency market, I don't believe you're here for excitement or charity, right? Even though the bull market has just begun, the current results are already obvious. Many friends in the current market are losing money. Why are they losing money? Everyone's reasons are different, but if you're not clear about why you're losing money right now, the upcoming market trends basically have nothing to do with you.
The old predecessors in the currency circle have always said that the best operation in a bull market is no operation. I agree with this view, because 90% of our players are ordinary people in this field who are non-professional. However, strangely, 90% of people will think they have become the top players in this circle because of one or two super profits in the bull market. A bull market is easy to create gods, easy to create countless coin-trading experts, easy to create a series of myths of getting rich overnight, and easy to create a strange self-confidence in ordinary people. But when the tide recedes, you will see countless traps and naked runners.
Currently, BTC.D has turned upward. Speculating ambiguously, this should be the last time BTC as the leader will hit the range of 58%-59%, and then it will turn downward. The market needs BTC's price to rise and break through to drive new capital momentum, and it also needs ETH to start and lead the second opening of the altcoin season. If BTC can successfully break through the range of 11-12w and consolidate sideways, then the altcoin season led by ETH should start again.
Is it now targeting the range of 11-12w? I personally think it should be, currently looking at the daily K-line shape is still very healthy, because most of the chips are concentrated in the hands of institutions, the momentum to push up is still sufficient. The decline this morning is probably due to some profit-taking and the need to hedge against tonight's Fed interest rate meeting. The focus of tonight's meeting is no longer a 25 basis point rate cut, but the dot plot and Powell's speech.
How to understand it? The market is watching the pace of rate cuts on the dot plot. According to the September dot plot forecast, there will be four more rate cuts by 2025. However, according to Bloomberg's statistics, the market generally expects three rate cuts next year. If the dot plot still shows three rate cuts tomorrow, it should be positive for the market; but if it is less than three, the market may start to worry.
So is there still a pullback? Once again, it is emphasized that the rapid rise and fall of a bull market is normal, with the purpose of clearing unstable chips. BTC did not experience a drop of more than 20% during the November rise, so even if such a drop occurs, I do not think it is surprising. At the current price, a 20% drop is 81K, and a 30% drop is 71K. Assuming it rises to the range of 11.5w and then quickly pulls back, a 20% drop is 90K, and a 30% drop is 84K.
So, both scripts can fill the gap in the contract K-line, which can satisfy the psychological needs of most people, but will it definitely happen? I believe no one can predict it accurately by 100%. According to historical laws, the fluctuation will indeed be relatively large before and after Christmas. We can only prepare for several scenarios and for friends who have not entered the market yet, judge how to increase their positions. For most players who are already fully invested, keep their emotions stable and have a good heart to sit alone on the fishing platform and watch the world with a smile, which is the best response plan.
Really no need to be afraid, the bull is still here ☕