L'artère énergétique du Golfe est bloquée, la pression de la transformation économique régionale augmente considérablement

Source : Xinhua News Agency

Xinhua News Agency, Riyadh, March 23rd — Title: Blockage of Gulf Energy Arteries Increases Regional Economic Transformation Pressure

Xinhua reporters Wang Haizhou, Luo Chen, Wang Qiang

Since the outbreak of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the Gulf region has not only suffered intense geopolitical security shocks but also faces challenges in ensuring energy exports, maintaining industrial chain stability, and promoting economic transformation. Observers believe that with the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil and gas facilities, and soaring logistics insurance costs, the security and financing costs for Gulf countries are both rising, posing severe challenges to economic diversification.

Growth prospects are hindered

Market analysts believe that for Gulf countries, high oil prices may temporarily improve fiscal revenues, but if exports are blocked, projects delayed, and financing costs increase, the negative effects will become apparent. Malon Hattir, a finance and economics professor from Beirut, Lebanon, told Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Television that if the conflict prolongs, the benefits oil-producing countries gain from rising oil prices may be offset or even nullified.

International credit rating agencies S&P and Fitch recently warned that the impact of Middle East conflicts has begun to transmit to credit channels. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, investments, fiscal stability, financing, and corporate cash flows in Gulf countries will be under pressure, especially for economies with weaker fiscal buffers.

Senior researcher Karen Yang from the Middle East Research Institute said that even if some oil exports resume before May, the conflict could still lead to income declines and economic contraction in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. Among them, Kuwait and Qatar’s GDP could shrink by as much as 14%.

Some industry insiders believe that the impact of the Middle East conflict is not just short-term market volatility but could also drag down growth for the entire year and lead markets to reassess the risks and resilience of Gulf economies. Reuters cited a S&P report indicating that if the conflict continues, the banking systems in the Gulf could face capital outflows of up to $307 billion.

In this context, some countries have begun to activate financial stability tools. The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates recently launched a “Resilience Support Program,” including increasing bank reserve ratios and temporarily releasing some funds to maintain credit supply and market confidence.

Economic transformation faces challenges

For Gulf countries, the deeper challenge of this conflict lies in whether national visions and transformation agendas will be interrupted by security shocks. Some experts believe that the current risks faced by Gulf countries are not merely “resource price fluctuations” but challenges across multiple dimensions such as finance, investment, and business confidence.

Currently, growth in non-oil sectors in Gulf countries still heavily depends on oil revenue redistribution. If oil exports are blocked for a long time, these countries’ sovereign wealth funds’ capital injection capacity will be affected. Reuters reports that at least three Gulf countries are reassessing their sovereign wealth fund allocations. Experts worry that funds originally allocated for tourism, manufacturing, finance, digital economy, and new energy transitions may be squeezed out by increasing security expenditures and emergency needs.

The World Bank and IMF previously stated that the growth prospects of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries depend on expansion, investment, and reforms in non-oil sectors. However, the current situation shows that the competitiveness of Gulf countries is largely influenced by transportation reserves, shipping insurance, maritime security, and supply chain resilience.

Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and CEO of QatarEnergy Saad Al-Kaabi said that the US-Israel-Iran conflict “set the entire Middle East back by 10 to 20 years,” affecting tourism, aviation, trade, and ports.

Yara Aziz, senior economist at an independent think tank and official monetary and financial forum, stated that the Middle East conflict further highlights the necessity of economic diversification. For policymakers in Gulf countries, responding to the subsequent impacts of regional conflicts requires balancing short-term fiscal gains with long-term structural risks.

Concerns over economic resilience

The Middle East conflict has prompted Gulf countries to reassess their security and development paths. Some analysts point out that future energy security in the Gulf will no longer be just about “can we produce,” but about “can we deliver products to global markets stably and at low cost in a high-risk geopolitical environment.”

Many Gulf countries are trying to address transportation blockages caused by the conflict. Saudi Arabia is transporting crude oil via pipelines to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. In the UAE, goods are rerouted to ports along the Omani Gulf, including Fujairah Port. Oman is actively promoting its ports in Sukhair, Duqm, and Salalah as alternative entry points into the Gulf region. However, some interviewees noted that while offshore ports have certain advantages, their vulnerability due to single export modes and constraints in insurance and port throughput remain significant.

Fattah Birol, Director-General of the International Energy Agency, warned that the current oil supply crisis could last for months and may accelerate the development of alternative paths such as renewable energy, nuclear power, and electric vehicles, while also potentially boosting short-term coal demand.

Energy expert Ibrahin Hamuda pointed out that the current crisis is shifting the focus of Gulf energy security from “protecting production facilities” to “ensuring energy reaches global markets amid turbulence.” This conflict may prompt countries to accelerate energy efficiency improvements, expand renewable energy investments, and build more resilient energy systems.