#创作者冲榜 Gold plummets $525 in a single week, silver crashes nearly 16%, larger decline may be coming
As the Iran conflict continues and energy prices remain elevated, the market is increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures re-emerging, which may force major global central banks to pause their easing cycles and shift to a longer observation stance.
Affected by this, gold has recently faced continued heavy losses. After breaking through the 50-day moving average, a key technical level, bearish sentiment in the market has further intensified. Multiple analysts warn that if the Middle East conflict continues to drag on and energy infrastructure suffers further damage, gold may face additional pain in the short term, with risks of even falling back toward the lower end of the $4,000 range not ruled out.
As the Middle East war shows no signs of ending, some analysts warn that gold investors may need to prepare for further market declines. The reason is that persistently rising energy prices are re-igniting inflationary threats, which may force major global central banks to end their original easing path and adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance instead.
The gold market experienced a clear technical breakdown this week. As gold prices fell below the 50-day moving average slightly below $5,000 per ounce, the market chart structure has clearly deteriorated. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong, in an interview with Kitco News, stated that Wednesday's breakdown and subsequent sustained selling has brought the gold market to a critical turning point.
He points out that from a price structure perspective, the 23% rally from the February 2, 2026 low of $4,402 to the March 2 high of $5,420 now appears more like a "corrective bounce," even resembling a typical "dead cat bounce."
This suggests that gold's next phase of movement is more likely to shift toward a sustained weeks-long bearish-driven decline. From a weekly perspective, gold fell a total of $525.56 this week, representing a 10.47% decline, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the outbreak of war, gold prices have declined by more than 14%. Recent market data shows that gold prices briefly fell below $4,500, while the year's high had reached above $5,600.
By comparison, silver has experienced even more severe declines. This week's silver price is set to fall cumulatively 15.67%, marking the largest drop since January's rally and pullback earlier this year. Spot silver is trading at $67.889 per ounce, down 6.74% on the day!
Middle East situation and the Strait of Hormuz become key variables for gold's next move
Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction depends almost entirely on how the Middle East situation evolves and whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore normal flow, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.
Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in his latest report that while the market awaits further clarity on the Iran war, he expects gold prices to fluctuate in the $4,600-$4,700 range in the short term, but also warns that downside risks are continuously increasing. He points out that if energy assets suffer further damage and the war drags on longer, the ultimate result could be gold prices falling toward the lower end of the $4,000 per ounce range. The reason is that in such a scenario, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise rates again due to persistently elevated energy prices.
However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean gold's long-term trend will permanently weaken. If energy infrastructure damage is limited and oil prices can quickly revert to pre-war levels, global central banks' purchasing interest in gold may rekindle, driving gold prices back to the long-term track of operating above $5,000 per ounce.
Why doesn't gold appear to be a safe-haven asset during war?
Despite gold's recent obvious headwinds, multiple analysts remain optimistic about its medium to long-term prospects. Commodities Strategy Chief Ole Hansen stated that the core rationale for investors buying gold at the beginning of the year hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.
However, he also points out that the current market needs to first go through a round of sentiment and position adjustment. In other words, investors need to first "calm down from their infatuation" before they can rekindle enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst phase has passed before they have more confidence to re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason gold has failed to demonstrate traditional safe-haven strength in a war environment is the re-inflation threat brought by rising energy prices.
The core of what the current market is trading is no longer just the geopolitical conflict itself, but how the conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.
Central banks on full watch, market has already swiftly withdrawn rate-cut bets!
Over the past week, major global central banks have almost universally maintained interest rates unchanged and collectively entered a relatively neutral "wait-and-see mode" to assess how much impact the war will have on inflation expectations. Haworth points out that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for various central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget expectations before summer, policymakers will have a clearer picture of whether the energy shock will substantively affect business decisions and price behavior.
However, the market clearly lacks such patience. Investors have already begun rapidly withdrawing bets on Fed rate cuts this year. Commerzbank's Head of Foreign Exchange and Commodities Research Thu Lan Nguyen stated that in the United States, not even one complete rate cut by year-end has been fully priced into markets. Yet in late February, the market widely expected the Fed to cut rates 2.5 times. She points out that following the recent Fed meeting, rate-cut expectations have been further weakened, mainly because Federal Reserve Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and explicitly stated that if future signs show inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will not be under consideration.
Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and raise long-term inflation expectations, gold prices will likely continue to face downward pressure.
Gold's long-term bull market may not necessarily be over, but short-term consolidation confirmation is more needed
Although a hawkish Fed stance typically suppresses gold by pushing bond yields and the dollar higher, some analysts believe that long-term opportunities for gold haven't disappeared. Senior Market Analyst Michael Brown stated that if central banks become overly focused on inflation and continue tightening policy in a recessionary environment, this itself could constitute a serious policy mistake. He points out that monetary policy has limited effectiveness against supply-driven inflation; all central banks can typically do is slow economic growth by suppressing demand.
Therefore, against the backdrop of highly uncertain duration and economic impact of the Iran conflict, central banks adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the most logical approach. But if major central banks ultimately do commit the policy error of "austerity in recession," gold could still perform well in a longer time dimension, as investors will then seek tools to hedge against economic downturn risks.
Brown stated that he doesn't believe the gold bull market has ended, but at the current stage, the market needs to first go through a full consolidation period, before it has stronger reasons to strengthen confidence in "buying on dips."
#创作者冲榜 Gold plummets $525 in a single week, silver crashes nearly 16%, larger decline may be coming
As the Iran conflict continues and energy prices remain elevated, the market is increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures re-emerging, which may force major global central banks to pause their easing cycles and shift to a longer observation stance.
Affected by this, gold has recently faced continued heavy losses. After breaking through the 50-day moving average, a key technical level, bearish sentiment in the market has further intensified. Multiple analysts warn that if the Middle East conflict continues to drag on and energy infrastructure suffers further damage, gold may face additional pain in the short term, with risks of even falling back toward the lower end of the $4,000 range not ruled out.
Gold price plummets $525, breaks key technical level, silver crushed nearly 16%
As the Middle East war shows no signs of ending, some analysts warn that gold investors may need to prepare for further market declines. The reason is that persistently rising energy prices are re-igniting inflationary threats, which may force major global central banks to end their original easing path and adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance instead.
The gold market experienced a clear technical breakdown this week. As gold prices fell below the 50-day moving average slightly below $5,000 per ounce, the market chart structure has clearly deteriorated. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong, in an interview with Kitco News, stated that Wednesday's breakdown and subsequent sustained selling has brought the gold market to a critical turning point.
He points out that from a price structure perspective, the 23% rally from the February 2, 2026 low of $4,402 to the March 2 high of $5,420 now appears more like a "corrective bounce," even resembling a typical "dead cat bounce."
This suggests that gold's next phase of movement is more likely to shift toward a sustained weeks-long bearish-driven decline. From a weekly perspective, gold fell a total of $525.56 this week, representing a 10.47% decline, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the outbreak of war, gold prices have declined by more than 14%. Recent market data shows that gold prices briefly fell below $4,500, while the year's high had reached above $5,600.
By comparison, silver has experienced even more severe declines. This week's silver price is set to fall cumulatively 15.67%, marking the largest drop since January's rally and pullback earlier this year. Spot silver is trading at $67.889 per ounce, down 6.74% on the day!
Middle East situation and the Strait of Hormuz become key variables for gold's next move
Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction depends almost entirely on how the Middle East situation evolves and whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore normal flow, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.
Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in his latest report that while the market awaits further clarity on the Iran war, he expects gold prices to fluctuate in the $4,600-$4,700 range in the short term, but also warns that downside risks are continuously increasing. He points out that if energy assets suffer further damage and the war drags on longer, the ultimate result could be gold prices falling toward the lower end of the $4,000 per ounce range. The reason is that in such a scenario, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise rates again due to persistently elevated energy prices.
However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean gold's long-term trend will permanently weaken. If energy infrastructure damage is limited and oil prices can quickly revert to pre-war levels, global central banks' purchasing interest in gold may rekindle, driving gold prices back to the long-term track of operating above $5,000 per ounce.
Why doesn't gold appear to be a safe-haven asset during war?
Despite gold's recent obvious headwinds, multiple analysts remain optimistic about its medium to long-term prospects. Commodities Strategy Chief Ole Hansen stated that the core rationale for investors buying gold at the beginning of the year hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.
However, he also points out that the current market needs to first go through a round of sentiment and position adjustment. In other words, investors need to first "calm down from their infatuation" before they can rekindle enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst phase has passed before they have more confidence to re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason gold has failed to demonstrate traditional safe-haven strength in a war environment is the re-inflation threat brought by rising energy prices.
The core of what the current market is trading is no longer just the geopolitical conflict itself, but how the conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.
Central banks on full watch, market has already swiftly withdrawn rate-cut bets!
Over the past week, major global central banks have almost universally maintained interest rates unchanged and collectively entered a relatively neutral "wait-and-see mode" to assess how much impact the war will have on inflation expectations. Haworth points out that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for various central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget expectations before summer, policymakers will have a clearer picture of whether the energy shock will substantively affect business decisions and price behavior.
However, the market clearly lacks such patience. Investors have already begun rapidly withdrawing bets on Fed rate cuts this year. Commerzbank's Head of Foreign Exchange and Commodities Research Thu Lan Nguyen stated that in the United States, not even one complete rate cut by year-end has been fully priced into markets. Yet in late February, the market widely expected the Fed to cut rates 2.5 times. She points out that following the recent Fed meeting, rate-cut expectations have been further weakened, mainly because Federal Reserve Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and explicitly stated that if future signs show inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will not be under consideration.
Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and raise long-term inflation expectations, gold prices will likely continue to face downward pressure.
Gold's long-term bull market may not necessarily be over, but short-term consolidation confirmation is more needed
Although a hawkish Fed stance typically suppresses gold by pushing bond yields and the dollar higher, some analysts believe that long-term opportunities for gold haven't disappeared. Senior Market Analyst Michael Brown stated that if central banks become overly focused on inflation and continue tightening policy in a recessionary environment, this itself could constitute a serious policy mistake. He points out that monetary policy has limited effectiveness against supply-driven inflation; all central banks can typically do is slow economic growth by suppressing demand.
Therefore, against the backdrop of highly uncertain duration and economic impact of the Iran conflict, central banks adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the most logical approach. But if major central banks ultimately do commit the policy error of "austerity in recession," gold could still perform well in a longer time dimension, as investors will then seek tools to hedge against economic downturn risks.
Brown stated that he doesn't believe the gold bull market has ended, but at the current stage, the market needs to first go through a full consolidation period, before it has stronger reasons to strengthen confidence in "buying on dips."