If #SpaceX finally IPOs with a valuation of 1.5 trillion USD,

then Peter Thiel’s move could be directly written into venture capital history.
It could even be said:
This is the ultimate compensation for his “early exit from Facebook.”
Let’s do the math first.
The current market consensus is:
SpaceX’s IPO valuation is about 1.5 trillion USD.
Founders Fund II (FF II), under Peter Thiel,
is estimated to hold about 10% of SpaceX shares,
which corresponds to a market value of 150 billion USD.
Within FF II,
Peter Thiel himself has an investment proportion of about 10%,
meaning his “actual economic interest” in this SpaceX exposure
is approximately 15 billion USD.
The key point is:
As a core LP and principal of the early-stage fund,
Thiel likely has full profit-sharing rights within the fund structure.
Assuming:
FF II’s distributable gains from SpaceX are 135 billion USD,
and Peter Thiel enjoys a 20% carry,
then—
his gains from this SpaceX stake alone
could reach around 27 billion USD.
Note, this is just a “paper estimate,”
not accounting for secondary premium, control premium,
and definitely not considering that he might never sell.
What makes this story dramatic?
Peter Thiel’s early exit from Facebook
caused him to miss out on the growth of billions of dollars in market value,
and has long been considered one of his “few regrets” in his investment career.
But SpaceX is different.
It’s a:
High technological barrier
National-level strategic binding
Commercial space + defense + space internet
Assets with almost no comparable companies
If Meta is “the ultimate internet platform,”
then SpaceX is more like—
the gateway to the next-generation infrastructure.
And because of this,
Thiel might never sell SpaceX this time.
Not for cashing out,
but because it itself
is the intersection of power, technology, and capital.
If the IPO really reaches this stage,
SpaceX is not just Musk’s pinnacle work,
but could also become—
Peter Thiel’s most perfect comeback in his career.