預測市場平台 Kalshi 的執法主管 Robert DeNault 宣布，Kalshi 計劃在未來數週內公開披露針對用戶的一系列內幕交易紀律處分通知，是其耗費數月清理可疑交易積壓的成果；執行長 Tarek Mansour 確認，監控系統「波洛（Poirot）」已完成逾 200 項調查，部分案件已移交執法機構。
執法主管到位與積壓清理行動
Robert DeNault 於 2025 年 10 月加入 Kalshi 四人法律團隊，擔任執法主管，此前曾任美國律師事務所 White & Case 合夥人，具備豐富的白領犯罪調查經驗。他表示，加入後數月時間幾乎全數投入處理可疑交易活動的積壓案件，計畫在未來數週持續公開披露相關執法結果。
自 2025 年 9 月起，DeNault 持續強化 Kalshi 區分「合法資訊不對稱」與「非法內幕交易」的職能機制，目標是將 Kalshi 的執法標準提升至可與紐約證券交易所（NYSE）及那斯達克（Nasdaq）比肩的水準。
觸發此次整治行動的市場背景包括：競爭平台 Polymarket 上一筆與委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅被捕相關的 40 萬美元賠付引發市場誠信質疑，以及眾議員 Richie Torres 提出立法要求預測市場建立更嚴格的反腐機制。
Kalshi 內幕交易認定標準與執法架構
Kalshi 目前重點監管「中間人交易（Middleman Trading）」：若交易員與負責結算相關合約的實體有直接關聯，即強制排除在該市場交易之外，即使交易員未實際獲利，此類「交易所違規行為」仍將導致公開紀律處分通知的發出。
Kalshi 執法架構的核心要素
Poirot 監控系統：已完成逾 200 項調查，執行長 Tarek Mansour 確認部分案件已轉介執法機構處理
MNPI（重大非公開信息）標準：認定範圍廣泛，涵蓋如中場秀工作人員濫用排練細節等場景，相關行為被視為明確的合約違規與市場禁令違反
公開紀律處分：模式對標 NYSE 與 Nasdaq 的交易所執法框架，計畫公開發布針對用戶的執法通知
中間人交易禁令：與結算實體有關聯的交易員須強制退出相關市場，以消除利益衝突疑慮
值得注意的宏觀背景是，美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）的執法力度因大量律師離職而下滑，主席 Mike Selig 表示，機構正朝向 AI 驅動的「最低有效監管劑量」方向轉型。Kalshi 的主動執法行動，在一定程度上填補了聯邦層級監管收縮留下的空間。
常見問題
Kalshi 的 Poirot 監控系統是什麼，目前有哪些具體調查成果？
Poirot 是 Kalshi 的內部市場監控系統，執行長 Tarek Mansour 本月初表示，該系統已完成逾 200 項調查，針對可疑內幕交易與市場操縱行為進行系統性篩查，其中部分案件已移交聯邦執法機構處理，預計數週內公開披露首批紀律處分結果。
Kalshi 如何定義「中間人交易（Middleman Trading）」，為何此類行為受到重點監管？
中間人交易是指交易員與負責結算相關預測合約的實體存在直接關聯，例如合約方的員工或顧問。由於此類交易員可能取得內部資訊並形成不公平優勢，Kalshi 將其強制排除在相關市場之外，即使未實際獲利，違規行為仍將觸發公開紀律處分。
Kalshi 的執法行動與 CFTC 的監管立場有何關係？
目前 CFTC 的執法力度因人才流失而下滑，主席 Mike Selig 推動以 AI 輔助的輕量化監管模式。在聯邦監管趨於保守的背景下，Kalshi 此次主動清理積壓案件、建立公開執法機制，被視為業界大型預測市場平台自律執法的標誌性舉措，其執法框架的發展方向將受到業界與監管機構的持續關注。
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