Why Bitcoin Open Interest Has Seen Its Largest Decline in Almost 3 Years

In brief

• Bitcoin open interest has dropped 55% from its $94B all-time high, now sitting at roughly $44B
• The asset briefly bounced above $70,000 after a cooler-than-expected January CPI print, but was rejected at that level
• Analysts see cautious optimism emerging, with some suggesting patient dollar-cost averaging at current levels as a viable play

Risk is coming off fast in Bitcoin’s derivatives market. Total open interest has dropped to $44 billion from a peak above $94 billion in October 2025, a 55% decline and the steepest drawdown since April 2023, CoinGlass data shows. Rising open interest typically signals fresh capital flowing into derivatives markets and increasing trader conviction. Declines, by contrast, suggest traders are cutting leverage and stepping back from speculative bets. 

Experts attribute the risk-off mood to a number of catalysts, including a weaker U.S. dollar, foreign wars, a shaky Japanese bond market, and AI transformational risks to traditional tech company models. Following a hotter-than-expected jobs report last week, which showed the U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January and dented expectations for further rate cuts, large-scale institutional selling has been especially pronounced. “This was largely counteracting any positive positioning from entities that were still expressing a long-term positive directional view on Bitcoin, such as Strategy,” analysts from crypto exchange Bitfinex told Decrypt. While some on-chain metrics have flashed signs of a reprieve, Bitcoin has struggled to regain a solid foothold above $70,000 for nearly two weeks, coinciding with a loss in investor confidence across traditional equities, particularly tech stocks.

A cooler U.S. inflation reading in January triggered a wave of spot buying in Bitcoin and forced short sellers to unwind positions in perpetual futures markets, analysts said.  Consumer price data, published Friday, rose 2.4% year over year, down from 2.7% in December, easing concerns that sticky inflation would delay interest-rate cuts. The move briefly lifted Bitcoin above $70,000 over the weekend, even as derivatives traders reduced exposure. Open interest fell, and funding rates turned negative, signalling that the rally was driven by short covering and spot demand rather than new leveraged bets. While Bitcoin has now retraced its “entire post-Trump-election ascent,” the tepid optimism doesn’t mean investors are entirely out of the market, Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at Nansen Research, told Decrypt. “For those with the patience to hold long term and who believe favorable crypto regulations are likely to continue, albeit at a slower pace, this could be an acceptable level for patient, cautious dollar-cost averaging,” she said.