Odaily星球日报讯 斯坦福商学院教授、a16z&Meta 顾问 Andy Hall 在 X 平台发文表示，其团队建立了一个关注政治预测市场、流动性和结算规则的新数据集。研究发现，预测市场中绝大多数政治合约缺乏活跃度，仅 1.3%的合约具备足够流动性。Kalshi 与 Polymarket 很少列出规则相同的相同合约，导致流动性进一步碎片化。
Andy Hall 提出四项改进建议：第一，在核心问题上列出合约，与独立机构合作定义社会关注的市场；第二，向做市商支付费用以在政治市场注入初始流动性；第三，引入 AI 代理在人类不参与的领域进行交易，生成社会需要的价格参考；第四，跨平台建立统一的定义和结算规则。Andy Hall 认为，这些举措将吸引对冲政治风险的交易者，使预测市场成为社会所需的真相机器。
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Articoli correlati
Hong Kong Suspends Basketball Betting Project Amid Concerns Over Prediction Markets and Illegal Gambling
Hong Kong's government has suspended its basketball betting project due to concerns over the rapid growth of prediction markets linked to illegal gambling. With monthly trading volumes rising dramatically, authorities aim to enhance public education and collaborate on measures against gambling.
GateNews16m fa
香港暫停籃球博彩合法化，研究預測市場影響及合規問題
香港本週暫停籃球博彩合法化，同時計劃啟動研究，評估預測市場在港的影響與普及程度。香港民政及青年事務局局長麥美娟表示，預測市場月交易金額已從兩年前的不足 1 億美元增至去年的逾 130 億美元，其中約 40% 與體育相關。
MarketWhisper2h fa
Polymarket Audits Builders Program Startups Over Insider Trading Concerns - Unchained
Polymarket has initiated an audit of its Builders Program after finding third-party tools that may facilitate insider trading by mimicking successful trades. The review follows scrutiny over potential market abuse linked to these apps.
UnchainedCrypto4h fa
Kalshi 上訴內華達事件合約禁令，CFTC 管轄爭議或上達最高法院
預測市場平台 Kalshi 就內華達州禁止其賽事合約的裁決提起上訴，美國第九巡迴上訴法院於 4 月 17 日進行口頭辯論，但庭審後未即時宣判。案件核心爭議在於 Kalshi 的事件合約究竟屬於商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）管轄的「互換合約」，還是須受各州博彩牌照監管活動。多名法律專家預測此案最終可能上訴至美國最高法院。
MarketWhisper5h fa
CFTC 主席塞利格：預測市場欺詐者將受法律嚴懲，拒絕暫停規則制定
美國CFTC主席塞利格在眾議院聽證會上強調對市場欺詐與操縱採取“零容忍政策”。他回應了有關5億美元石油期貨交易的質詢，並表示CFTC正擬定預測市場監管規則。塞利格還提到與SEC簽署合作備忘錄，加強數位資產監管。對於CFTC目前僅有他一位委員的情況，塞利格強調機構運作效率，並將招聘新員工以增強監管能力。
MarketWhisper7h fa
Prediction Markets Market Share Distribution Revealed, Kalshi Leads at 37.8%
Gate News message, latest data shows the market share distribution among prediction market platforms. Kalshi leads with 37.8% market share, followed by Polymarket at 35.3%. Opinion Labs xyz holds 14.4%, Predict dot fun accounts for 8.5%, and Crypto Com represents 2.5% of the market.
GateNews12h fa
