2月6日消息，美国就业市场正出现快速降温迹象，最新裁员数据引发宏观担忧，同时也为比特币价格走势提供了新的政策想象空间。全球职业咨询机构Challenger, Gray & Christmas发布报告称，1月份美国企业已宣布的裁员计划达到108,435人，环比激增205%，创下自2009年以来的最高纪录。
与去年同期相比，该数据上涨118%，显示出劳动力需求明显转弱。科技行业裁员22,291人，其中Amazon占比居前；物流巨头UPS也宣布将裁减31,243个岗位。Challenger, Gray & Christmas的职场专家Andy Challenger表示，1月通常并非裁员高峰期，如此规模的计划裁撤，意味着企业对2026年经济前景信心不足。
这一趋势与美国劳工统计局的官方非农就业数据形成反差，后者仍描绘出相对稳定的就业环境。但越来越多私人机构的数据正在发出不同信号。此前，基于区块链的通胀监测平台Truflation显示，美国实时通胀率已降至1%以下，而官方CPI仍高于美联储2%的政策目标。
多项“非官方指标”同步走弱，使市场开始重新评估美联储的货币政策路径。当前基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间，但经济放缓迹象或迫使决策层转向更宽松的立场。对风险资产而言，这种预期通常构成支撑。
比特币已从此前超过12.6万美元的历史高位回落近50%，目前处于震荡修复阶段。部分分析认为，若降息预期持续强化，可能为比特币构筑中期价格底部。
在政策前景上，市场分歧依旧。JPMorgan预计今年利率将维持不变，而其他投行则预测年内至少两次降息。还有经济学家指出，特朗普提名的美联储主席人选Kevin Warsh，可能在中期选举前推动更大幅度的政策调整。随着宏观信号持续变化，比特币正站在新的关键节点。
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