比特币在近期剧烈波动后再度走弱，价格一度跌至7.31万美元附近，随后回升至约7.64万美元，但多项指标显示动能持续减弱。加密交易机构 QCP Capital 指出，当前价格虽暂时站在7.45万美元上方，但结构依然脆弱，若连续失守7.4万美元，或引发新一轮去杠杆与强制平仓，拖累整个加密资产市场。
QCP认为，短期内7.6万美元附近的机构承接尤为关键，若反弹无法突破8万美元，风险偏向仍将向下。与此同时，宏观与地缘因素叠加，也放大了不确定性。因出演《大空头》而闻名的 Michael Burry 警告，流动性正在收紧，风险资产承压明显，若比特币跌破7万美元，机构资金链可能受到冲击；若进一步滑向6万美元，部分高杠杆公司或面临严峻考验。
来自去中心化交易领域的 Trantor 指出，当前市场仍由杠杆资金主导，波动被持续放大。在现货需求重新主导之前，比特币可能维持震荡偏弱格局。研究机构 Four Pillars 的 Siwon Huh 也强调，74,000美元是重要心理与成本支撑，一旦失守，可能伴随资金外流与情绪恶化。
预测市场的数据同样偏向谨慎。functionSPACE 创始人 Tom Chalmers 表示，多数参与者正对6.5万美元区间给予更高权重，显示市场定价机制仍显脆弱。与此同时，Dastan 旗下 Myriad Markets 的用户中，约四分之三预期比特币将继续下探。
在多重因素交织下，市场正处于关键拐点。分析人士普遍认为，只有当抛压释放、流动性改善并出现稳定买盘后，比特币才可能真正摆脱下行压力。当前阶段，风险管理与仓位控制仍是主旋律。
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