Bitcoin Traders See Nearly Even Odds for $69K Drop or $100K Recovery

In brief

• Prediction markets show nearly 50/50 odds Bitcoin falls to $69K versus recovering to $100K.
• BTC fell sharply Thursday amid government shutdown fears and stock market volatility.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to “Extreme Fear” at 16, the lowest so far this year.

For the first time in almost two months, Myriad users doubted that Bitcoin will see $100,000 before it dumps to $69,000. Users on the prediction market platform, which is owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, now see nearly even odds that Bitcoin will keep falling as they do that BTC will climb back into six-digit territory. The odds have fluctuated near the 50-50 mark over the past 24 hours, leaning towards the negative move at multiple points. As of this writing, predictors give a slight edge to a rebound, giving it a 51.6% likelihood. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands for $82,927 after having dropped nearly 2% in the past day, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko. Markets were rattled yesterday when the U.S. Senate blocked a deal that would extend federal funding and avert a partial government shutdown ahead of the Friday night deadline.

 The latest out of D.C. is that President Donald Trump and Senate Democrats reached an agreement Thursday night, but as of Friday morning a vote still hasn’t been scheduled, according to reporting by Politico. The possibility for another shutdown two months after the last one—the longest in U.S. history—ended, has left traders on tenterhooks. Investors have switched into “Extreme Fear” mode, according to Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which dropped 10 points to 16 in the past 24 hours. The index is now the lowest it’s been since the start of the year.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index measures market volatility, momentum and trading volume, social media sentiment, Bitcoin dominance, and how terms like “Bitcoin” and “crypto” show up in Google Trends. The impact hasn’t been limited to crypto markets, but they have been slower to bounce back than equities. For example, the Nasdaq took a dive yesterday after Microsoft—which accounts for roughly 10% of the Nasdaq Composite—reported disappointing earnings after hours on Wednesday. The impact wasn’t long-lasting, but Bitcoin didn’t follow the Nasdaq when it rebounded, “highlighting ongoing weakness in underlying market tone,” Bitbank analyst Yukari Kusu said in a note shared with Decrypt. “Looking ahead, some potentially positive headlines remain on the radar, including Trump’s nomination of the next Fed Chair and the possibility of a partial U.S. government shutdown,” he added. “However, given the current market conditions, BTC may remain vulnerable to further downside before a meaningful reversal can take hold.”