1月29日消息，美国劳动力市场正释放出明显的降温信号。亚马逊、Pinterest、UPS、耐克等多家大型企业相继宣布裁员计划，仅亚马逊就在2026年1月裁减约1.6万个岗位。数据显示，过去一年美国雇主已削减约120万个职位，裁员规模创下疫情以来新高，经济衰退预期随之快速升温。
根据Global Markets Investor预测，2025年美国裁员人数同比暴增58%，为2008年金融危机以来最严峻的年度之一。失业者平均求职周期延长至约11周，为2021年以来最长。同时，找到新工作的概率降至43.1%，进一步削弱市场信心。Creative Planning策略师Charlie Bilello指出，近三个月美国月均减少2.2万个岗位，而历史上类似情况几乎都伴随衰退出现。Swissblock首席宏观经济学家Henrik Zeberg也警告，美国经济正加速滑向下行通道。
宏观压力已开始影响资产配置。资金更倾向于流入贵金属等传统避险标的，而比特币与其他数字资产则承压震荡。疲软的就业环境意味着收入和消费增速放缓，这通常会压制高波动性资产的需求，使加密市场短期难以出现持续反弹。
不过，也有观点认为，若经济持续走弱，货币宽松预期将逐步升温，利率下调与流动性释放可能在中长期为加密货币创造新的支撑。一旦风险偏好回暖，比特币或再次成为资金重返风险市场的重要选择。
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