惠誉:预计美联储上半年降息两次,今年失业率或稳于4.6%

GateNews

Odaily星球日报讯 惠誉将 2025 年美国 GDP 增长预估值及 2026 年增长预测值上调。此次调整是在纳入了因去年底政府停摆而延迟发布的经济数据后作出的。惠誉目前预计 2025 年 GDP 增长 2.1%,高于其 2025 年 12 月《全球经济展望》(GEO)中预测的 1.8%。同时,将 2026 年的增长预测从上次报告的 1.9%上调至 2.0%。鉴于 10 月数据不完整,近期 CPI 通胀趋势难以解读。据估计,通胀率在 2025 年 12 月升至 3.0%(11 月为 2.7%),并受关税传导延迟的影响,2026 年将进一步上升,年底预计达到 3.2%。由于就业增长放缓的影响被劳动力增速下降所抵消,预计 2026 年平均失业率为 4.6%,与近期水平接近。我们预计美联储将在 2026 年上半年降息两次,将联邦基金利率(上限)下调至 3.25%。(金十)

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to Disclaimer.
Commento
0/400
Nessun commento