比特币在美联储重大利好推动下短暂突破 9.45 万美元，但随后的市场回调迅速逆转涨势。周三晚间，美联储宣布新的债券购买计划并大幅降息，引发风险资产普遍上涨，比特币同步上攻。然而，由于科技股承压，甲骨文大跌带动纳斯达克 100 指数触及八日低点，比特币也随之回落至 9 万美元附近。
当前市场情绪处于关键测试阶段。数据显示，加密货币总市值在过去三周经历震荡，从此前温和上升转为横盘，并回调至 3.08 万亿美元区间。若比特币跌破 8.8 万美元，将终结自 11 月 21 日以来的短期上涨趋势，并可能引发更强烈的看跌情绪。
链上与机构数据方面，Glassnode 指出，自年初以来，上市与私营企业的比特币储备激增 448%，累计达到 108 万枚，成为推动比特币需求增长的核心力量。ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood 表示，企业持续买入比特币用于长期储备，将有效阻止过去那种 75%-90% 的深度回调周期。
然而，也有反对声音。Strategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 再次强调公司将尽可能购入比特币，但投资机构 Mayside Partners 指出，这种模式具有高杠杆风险，类似结构在历史上屡次失败，经济可行性值得质疑。
监管方面，美国教师联合会（AFT）呼吁参议院撤回即将审议的“负责任金融创新法案”，认为相关内容可能对养老金体系和美国经济带来潜在风险。
此外，比特币巨鲸 Twenty One Capital 正式在纽约证券交易所上市，但首日股价下跌 20%。该公司持有 42,000 枚比特币（约 39 亿美元），为全球第三大公开持有比特币的企业。
整体来看，比特币正面临宏观、监管与市场情绪三重考验。短期趋势依旧脆弱，但机构需求与企业持仓增长仍为价格提供中长期支撑。
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