「末日博士」罕见乐观:美股不会崩盘,科技将让美国「逆天改命」

GateNews

BlockBeats 消息,11 月 27 日,近二十年来,著名经济学家鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)一直带着「末日博士」的绰号。这位经济学家认为,一段短暂的增长降温期后,将迎来由技术和资本支出推动的强劲反弹,这使得美国能够稳居世界领先地位。他指出,首先,市场纪律、理性顾问和美联储的独立性在「解放日」之后为最糟糕的政策提供了保护。由于市场随后迅速大幅调整,特朗普不得不让步,转而谈判达成更合理的贸易协议。目前流行的观点——即美国股市处于一个巨大的泡沫中,注定会崩盘——在中期来看是不正确的。鲁比尼指出,GDP 增长加快可能导致实际债券收益率上升,但一场由技术驱动的巨大正面总供给冲击可能会随着时间的推移将通胀降至接近零的水平,因为商品和服务的生产成本急剧下降,而生产率增长上升。因此,从长远来看,对名义债券收益率的净影响可能会相互抵消。他认为,即使是美国的对外负债也是可持续的,因为由技术驱动的资本支出激增所导致的更大经常账户赤字,将通过资本对美元资产的股票流入来弥补。届时,美国将看起来像一个新兴市场经济体,其中自然资源或生产力繁荣带来了投资热潮。(金十)

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