Just now, my phone popped up a red dot: interest rates are once again being discussed on trending searches, and the group immediately started “risk assets are about to take a hit.” To put it simply, the macro transmission to crypto isn’t that mysterious: when interest rates are high, that small “risk appetite” in everyone’s hands is first absorbed by government bonds/money market funds, leverage becomes more expensive, and positions naturally shrink, making the market more prone to panic selling with the slightest disturbance.

I personally am very straightforward: seeing interest rate expectations rise, I split my positions into smaller parts, keep some cash aside, and don’t always think about going all-in at once. On-chain, it’s even more obvious: the more failed trades and repeated nonce replacements there are, the more it’s likely due to emotional impatience, slippage filling in randomly, which is quite synchronized with macro “risk preference turning around.”

As for the recent L2s arguing over TPS, fees, subsidies… I treat it as a thermometer of sentiment: when money is tight, they prefer “cheaper,” “faster,” and “more generous” options. Anyway, I care more about not messing up the packing order, so users don’t think that clicking confirm guarantees safety. That’s all for now.