¿Satoshi Nakamoto sigue vivo? Una razón sencilla sobre la muerte del fundador de Bitcoin

The New York Times recently published an investigation and report, directly stating that cryptographer Adam Back is very likely to be Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, rebutted this, emphasizing that if Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, he could not possibly turn a blind eye to the quantum computer threat that Bitcoin is facing.

The New York Times: Is Adam Back Satoshi Nakamoto?

The arguments in the report from the Times focus on Adam Back’s Cypherpunk background, the technical connection between the proof-of-work system he invented, Hashcash, and Bitcoin’s design, as well as the similarities between both parties in writing habits and word usage. However, Back has publicly denied this for years.

Carter pointed out that this report lacks any substantive new evidence; stylometric analysis is prone to being manipulated in statistical methods, and the overall argumentative force is clearly insufficient to support an identity accusation. However, he also admitted that in the future, it may be possible to get an answer to this question with the help of artificial intelligence.

(LLM恐破坏网络匿名与隐私：AI能找出中本聪是谁吗？)

Quantum computers are closing in: 1.7 million BTC at imminent risk

The core of Carter’s argument is a looming technical crisis. At present, there are about 1.7 million BTC in the Bitcoin network, stored in old Pay to Public Key (P2PK) addresses, with a market value of over $120 billion, accounting for about 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply. The fatal weakness of this type of address is that it directly exposes the holder’s public key:

Once quantum computer computing power is strong enough, it can be used to reverse-engineer the private key and thereby fully take control of this batch of assets.

According to Google’s latest research, the number of qubits required to crack this kind of encryption may be far lower than previously expected—about 26,000 qubits could complete the破解 in a few days. Google has also set a deadline for post-quantum cryptography upgrades after 2029, and the U.S. government has required critical infrastructure to complete the transition by 2030.

In the industry, it is widely believed that the so-called “Q-Day (quantum cracking day)” is no longer an sci-fi scenario far away, but a real challenge for network security in this century.

(Google aims to complete the quantum migration after 2029; in contrast, the Bitcoin community consensus is unclear)

Has the Bitcoin community taken action?

In the face of this potential crisis, the Bitcoin developer community is not without options. In theory, a software upgrade could forbid any spending from these old P2PK addresses, effectively freezing these assets permanently.

However, this plan is almost impossible to implement in reality. The core Bitcoin culture is built on a belief in “the inviolability of property rights, and immutable monetary policy.” Forcing users’ funds to be frozen is no different from violating Bitcoin’s founding spirit, and it has also triggered strong resistance from some parts of the community.

(When Bitcoin is no longer willing to change: the real risk is not quantum threats, but a religiously minded community)

Carter: If Satoshi Nakamoto were alive, he could not stand by

This is exactly Carter’s strongest inference. Satoshi Nakamoto himself had already been involved in discussions about Bitcoin quantum risks as early as 2010, so he is not unaware of this issue. If Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, and if he has a sense of responsibility toward Bitcoin, he would have every ability to take action while preserving anonymity:

Transfer the held Bitcoin to new addresses that adopt post-quantum encryption, or directly send these assets to a burn address. This can fundamentally eliminate the risk of quantum attacks.

However, since Satoshi Nakamoto faded from the public eye in 2010, these assets have never moved. Carter believes that a Satoshi Nakamoto who is still alive and cares about Bitcoin’s future could not be indifferent to such an urgent systemic threat. The only reasonable explanation is that he is already unable to act, or he had passed away long ago.

Does this article ask: is Satoshi Nakamoto still alive? A simple reason why the Bitcoin founder has already died first appeared in 链新闻 ABMedia.