Economic Half Hour 260318

Last week's market showed clear signs of gradual recovery, with spot buying pressure rebounding, continuous ETF capital inflows, and slightly improved investor profitability. However, on-chain trading activity remained sluggish, and futures market positioning remained cautious, indicating confidence has not fully recovered. Following eight consecutive bullish days of strong rebound, Bitcoin is now standing at a critical decision point under the large-cycle bearish structure—the results of today's early morning Fed FOMC interest rate decision will directly determine whether this oversold rebound peaks in place or launches an assault on the $80,000 level.

The upper core resistance zone is located at $74,400 to $85,000, which is a densely clustered trapped position since last year and the life-or-death defense line for short-term bears, with institutional funds facing significant selling pressure in this zone. Yesterday, BTC failed multiple attempts to break through $74,400, showing weakening momentum for bulls to chase higher. For downside support, $71,500 to $72,200 is the first defense line for bulls, with $72,000 being the current psychological midpoint. If macroeconomic headwinds cause a break below this level today, it could trigger further declines. If $69,000 breaks below, it may trigger panic selling and confirm that this eight-consecutive-bullish-day rebound has officially ended.

Operationally, a defensive mindset should still be maintained today, and chasing longs is not recommended. Short-sellers on the left side can watch for opportunities when price rallies to around $74,400--$74,800 before the meeting. Particularly need to be alert to the fact that currently long and short positions are extremely crowded, and the market could see both upward and downward "double-pronged pinning" to clear leverage before the meeting. Regardless of the interest rate decision outcome, please strictly implement stop losses and do not make heavy bets before the direction becomes clear.

ETH's recent high of 2385 may become a phased resistance level, with support below at 2295. If Bitcoin's first defense line breaks, it is likely to follow suit in declining.