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大宗商品牛市的宏观條件:
1. 地緣衝突導致供給衝擊
霍爾木茲海峽,影響全球20%的石油航運、20%的LPG貿易、9%的鋁產能
2. 寬鬆的貨幣流動性
目前美聯儲處於降息周期,但背景是市場流動性不足。後期要觀察美聯儲的貨幣政策
3. 新型需求的剛性增長
AI算力中心、電網升級、新能源汽車
4. 庫存和產能的低彈性
全球礦企資本開支自2011年鑑定後持續收縮,加上長期投資不足和ESG約束,新增產能有限。