#美联储重启降息步伐 Bitcoin Evening Market Observation: A Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears

**Macro Background is Key**

The Fed ending QT and the market pricing in an 87% probability of further rate cuts is indeed a long-term positive for BTC. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan’s 91% probability of a rate hike could trigger carry trade unwinding, so short-term capital sentiment still requires caution.

**Technical Analysis is a Bit Complex**

The daily chart broke the key support at 90,800, indicating short-term buying momentum. However, the strong resistance zone at 93,600–94,200 is holding firm, and on the weekly chart, price is still consolidating within the 90,000–95,000 range. Simply put—the bulls are probing, but the bears’ defenses haven’t been breached.

**Spot Supply Worth Watching**

There’s been a net outflow of 668,000 BTC from exchanges, and 70% of BTC remains locked long-term, meaning there aren’t many tokens circulating in the market. However, the marginal effect of ETF inflows is diminishing, and selling pressure at higher levels hasn’t been fully released.

**Short-Term Outlook**

Tonight, the price will likely keep oscillating between 90,000 and 93,000. For an upward breakout, it must hold above 93,000 with strong volume confirmation. If it drops below 90,000, look to 88,000 for support. Until there’s a clear directional signal, “trading the range” is more reasonable than “betting on a single direction.”

**Practical Strategy**

*Bullish Perspective*: Consider buying on a pullback to 90,500–91,000; in extreme cases, add more at 89,500. Set a stop-loss just below 89,000 (which is the daily chart’s midline—if broken, the bullish logic fails). The initial target is the 4-hour resistance at 92,000–92,500; if broken, look for 93,000–93,500. Take some profits at those levels and keep some position for ongoing consolidation.

Key thing to remember—trading with risk control is always safer than going “all in.”