Recently, the market has been discussing a very interesting phenomenon: the US is preparing to cut interest rates, while Japan is about to start tightening its monetary policy.
The last time such a policy divergence occurred was several years ago. What was the result back then? Capital flooded into the tech sector and high-risk assets like a tidal wave. Will history repeat itself this time?
💡 First, let's talk about why this cycle could be even more intense
Everyone understands US rate cuts—when borrowing costs go down, money naturally flows to places with higher returns. But the key factor here is Japan’s move—over the past decade or so, how many global hedge funds have made money through “yen carry trades”? Now, once Japan raises rates, all that money will have to unwind and be repatriated.
Liquidity doesn’t just disappear—it simply moves elsewhere. The question is: where will it flow?
Traditional stock markets are already overvalued, and bond yields aren’t attractive enough. In contrast, the flexibility of crypto assets has become an advantage. And among all the crypto assets, Ethereum’s position is quite unique.
⚡ Why Ethereum specifically?
First, it’s not a purely speculative asset. After the Layer-2 scaling upgrades, on-chain transaction costs have dropped to usable levels, and DeFi, NFTs, and blockchain gaming are all picking up again. Incoming capital now has real use cases to support it, not just empty speculation.
Second, institutional allocation logic has changed. With ETFs approved, traditional capital now has a clear path to enter the market—no more need to manage wallets and complicated cross-chain operations themselves. Once liquidity gets going, Ethereum is the easiest pool to amplify.
Finally, the timing is perfect. The technical upgrade just finished, and macro policies are lining up—this kind of double catalyst doesn’t happen often.
🎯 To put it simply: December could be a watershed moment
If the US really starts cutting rates and Japan follows suit, the speed at which capital is reallocated will be faster than most expect.
Ethereum’s current state is a bit like Bitcoin before the last bull run—the infrastructure is ready, all that’s missing is capital inflow.
Of course, markets never follow the script. But at least from both a policy and technical perspective, Ethereum is in the right place this time.
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gm_or_ngmi
· 12h ago
The closing of yen carry trades is indeed crucial, but it still feels like the certainty of ETH is being overestimated. No matter how well it's explained, it ultimately comes down to betting on policy.
View OriginalReply0
GasFeeCrier
· 14h ago
The analysis of Japan's interest rate hike and carry trade unwinding is excellent, but as the old saying goes, the market loves to do the opposite.
For this ETH rally to truly take off, it depends on whether capital is willing to step in. Don't just talk theory on paper.
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ClassicDumpster
· 12-07 07:40
I agree with the part about Japan's rate hike triggering carry trade unwinding, but you say Ethereum is the easiest pool to amplify? Uh... have institutions really entered the market, or are they just talking about it?
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MidnightSeller
· 12-07 07:31
The real highlight is the yen carry trade liquidations; the borrowed money has to flow back, and no one can escape this. ETH does have a good position right now, but... don’t get your hopes up too high.
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JustAnotherWallet
· 12-07 07:29
The real key is the unwinding of Japan's interest rate carry trades—where will the money flow?
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It's that same old "last time was like this too" argument. And what happened? It's just a gambler's mentality.
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Is ETH holding the right position now? Alright, I'll trust you and throw in a bit to test the waters.
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I've heard enough of the argument that Layer 2 has real use cases just because costs have come down.
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A watershed moment in December? What did they say last December? I forgot.
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How long have they been talking about opening up institutional allocation channels? Where's the real money?
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That last line, "being in the right position," sure sounds like a signal before retail investors get dumped on.
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Honestly, the liquidity part was explained pretty well, but predicting a bull market is a bit presumptuous.
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Instead of waiting for capital to come in, I'd rather see how far this dip can go for a bargain buy.
#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH $SHIB $DOGE
Recently, the market has been discussing a very interesting phenomenon: the US is preparing to cut interest rates, while Japan is about to start tightening its monetary policy.
The last time such a policy divergence occurred was several years ago. What was the result back then? Capital flooded into the tech sector and high-risk assets like a tidal wave. Will history repeat itself this time?
💡 First, let's talk about why this cycle could be even more intense
Everyone understands US rate cuts—when borrowing costs go down, money naturally flows to places with higher returns. But the key factor here is Japan’s move—over the past decade or so, how many global hedge funds have made money through “yen carry trades”? Now, once Japan raises rates, all that money will have to unwind and be repatriated.
Liquidity doesn’t just disappear—it simply moves elsewhere. The question is: where will it flow?
Traditional stock markets are already overvalued, and bond yields aren’t attractive enough. In contrast, the flexibility of crypto assets has become an advantage. And among all the crypto assets, Ethereum’s position is quite unique.
⚡ Why Ethereum specifically?
First, it’s not a purely speculative asset. After the Layer-2 scaling upgrades, on-chain transaction costs have dropped to usable levels, and DeFi, NFTs, and blockchain gaming are all picking up again. Incoming capital now has real use cases to support it, not just empty speculation.
Second, institutional allocation logic has changed. With ETFs approved, traditional capital now has a clear path to enter the market—no more need to manage wallets and complicated cross-chain operations themselves. Once liquidity gets going, Ethereum is the easiest pool to amplify.
Finally, the timing is perfect. The technical upgrade just finished, and macro policies are lining up—this kind of double catalyst doesn’t happen often.
🎯 To put it simply: December could be a watershed moment
If the US really starts cutting rates and Japan follows suit, the speed at which capital is reallocated will be faster than most expect.
Ethereum’s current state is a bit like Bitcoin before the last bull run—the infrastructure is ready, all that’s missing is capital inflow.
Of course, markets never follow the script. But at least from both a policy and technical perspective, Ethereum is in the right place this time.