At 3:00 AM on December 10, the results of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting will be revealed.

Current market betting situation:
There’s an 84% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and only a 16% chance of no change.

Powell is probably torn right now:
If he cuts, inflation is still hovering above 3%. If it rebounds, wouldn’t he be slapping himself in the face?
If he doesn’t cut, the unemployment rate has already started to rise—drag it out any longer and he’ll be called a historical villain.

If the 12 FOMC voters had a group chat, it would probably go like this:
— Hawks (7 votes): Guys, the job market is already coughing. If we keep waiting, the average person just can’t take it anymore!
— Doves (4 votes): What’s the rush? The old inflation monster isn’t dead yet—what if it comes back to life?
— Fence-sitter (1 vote): Wait, let me check tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll data… Huh? The market’s already closed? Never mind, I’ll go eat and calm down first.

The market has already moved ahead:
US stocks and Bitcoin have started partying as if Powell is already one of their own.
The 10-year Treasury yield is pretty Zen, holding steady around 4%, with a “you guys do your thing” attitude.

Three possible scenarios:
1. 25bp rate cut (most likely):
Everyone shouts “Long live Daddy Powell!” then immediately takes profits and runs, and the market drops 3% just for show.

2. No change (less likely):
Everyone loses it online—“Powell, you liar” trends everywhere. Bitcoin could take the express elevator straight to the $80,000 range.

3. Cut but with a hawkish tone (most devious):
Gives you a sweet treat but warns “this is the last time,” so after a brief rally, the market crashes hard—a classic pump-and-dump.

Bottom line:
No matter what, short-term volatility is inevitable.
The only difference is whether you get a sugar rush before being dumped on, or just get wiped out right away.

Get your popcorn and chairs ready—3:00 AM on December 10, let’s witness the grand drama of human nature in the capital markets together.