The Fed enters its most important week

The Fed's balance sheet dropped by $16.6 billion in just one week

Now they've entered the media blackout period ahead of the December 10 meeting

Market expectations for Fed decisions:

December 10, 2025: 25 basis point cut
January 28, 2026: Hold
March 18, 2026: Hold
April 29, 2026: 25 basis point cut
June + July 2026: Hold

Almost all major banks agree that a cut is coming
Reuters:

• 82% of economists expect a 25 basis point cut
• There is division within the Fed, with at least 5 votes against any further cuts

Bank of America:
• Expects a 25 basis point cut
• Warns that combining cuts with fiscal stimulus could make monetary policy too loose

Morgan Stanley:
• Main cut in December
• Two more cuts in January and April 2026

JPMorgan:
• Changed their outlook, now see the cut in December instead of January

Goldman Sachs:
• Weak labor market confirmed the decision to cut

BlackRock:
• Says the Fed might cut next week