Trading is Not Guessing — It's Playing the Probabilities

In this market, the ones who survive and make money are not those who guess the price direction correctly, but those who think in terms of probabilities every time they make a decision.

Trading is always a game of the saying: “If A happens, I do X. If B happens, I do Y.”

When the price approaches a key level, there are actually only a few very clear scenarios: The price respects that level as support → you may consider entering a long position. The price breaks that level and turns it into resistance → you may enter a short position or wait for the price to continue dropping as long as it stays below that level.

That’s it. Just that.

Your job is to prepare in advance for each scenario.

But there will always be people who say things like: “If you say that, aren’t you just saying the price will go up or down?”

Ignore them. Those people don’t understand the market, don’t understand risk management. They lose money, get frustrated, and need somewhere to vent.

They’re not your competition. They’re just noise.

You’re here to make money.

And to make money, you must consider all possibilities, assess which scenario has a higher probability of occurring, and then trade according to your plan.

A true trader always thinks like this: If A happens → I do this. If B happens → I do that.

No predictions. No gambling. No acting on emotion.

Only: probability – preparation – and discipline in execution.

That’s what real trading is.