Inflation Data Positive but Drops Below 90,000? What Signal Is Hidden in This BTC Correction?

[BlockBeats] Yesterday, the long-delayed September PCE data was released in the US. The core inflation annual growth rate dropped to 2.8%, a five-month low and slightly below market expectations. As soon as this data came out, the traditional markets immediately started playing out the “soft landing” narrative—the dollar continued to weaken, US Treasury yields fell, and US stocks continued their mild upward trend. In theory, this environment is bullish for risk assets, as it gives the Fed more room to potentially cut rates in December.

But Bitcoin’s reaction was a bit odd. After the data was released, BTC fell instead of rising, dropping to around 87,000 at one point, with a 24-hour volatility of about 3%, clearly decoupling from the stock market. This correction actually had little to do with the inflation data and was mainly due to a combination of factors: concentrated options expiration, some pressure rumors around MicroStrategy, and significant volatility during the Asian session. Major coins also corrected along with BTC. Interestingly, BTC spot ETFs still saw a net inflow of nearly $60 million that day, indicating that institutional money hasn’t pulled out, and the market fear index has returned from extreme levels to a more neutral position.

From a technical perspective, BTC’s key support zone is currently in the 89,000–90,700 range. As long as this holds, the overall structure remains healthy with room for further upside. On the upside, 94,400 and 97,000 are two obvious resistance levels. If the Fed really turns dovish, there might be a rebound window in the next couple of days. However, if it falls below 89,000, watch out for a possible test of the 85,000 technical correction level.

The main event is next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting on December 10. But rate cut expectations are largely already priced in, and the market is now more focused on the Fed’s specific statements and data validation. At this stage, the macro environment is indeed leaning positive, but the crypto market’s capital structure is sensitive and easily swayed by unexpected events. Whether BTC can hold above 89,000 will basically determine if it can benefit from this round of year-end policy easing. Keep a close eye on capital flows and changes in risk appetite—these are the two most critical indicators right now.