2025-12-06 11:20:33

There are three key dates to keep a close eye on in December.

First, December 11th: the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut interest rates, with the market currently pricing in an 87% probability. If anything unexpected happens, the market could experience a roller-coaster ride.

Next is the 19th: the Bank of Japan is rumored to be considering a rate hike. If they actually follow through, global liquidity will tighten immediately—this is no small matter.

The most critical is on the 26th: the largest Bitcoin options expiry of the year, with a notional value of $23 billion. The bulls are targeting the $100,000 line, while the bears are holding the $84,000 put option cluster for dear life. When the time comes, both sides will likely battle fiercely at these two price levels, and volatility is expected to be significant.

Any one of these three events could trigger major market moves.

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RetailTherapist

· 3h ago

The options expiring on the 26th feel like they're going to result in a huge loss.

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PerennialLeek

· 18h ago

On the 26th, there will be intense long and short positions battling, so you'll probably need to pay close attention to your stop-loss again.

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IntrovertMetaverse

· 12-06 11:50

If all three of these points in December blow up, I’ll have to throw my phone away, seriously.

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Layer2Observer

· 12-06 11:41

An 87% probability means you have to take things seriously no matter what, but this kind of "high probability" is often the easiest to backfire in actual operations. The 23 billion options expiring on the 26th is the real point that needs to be tracked from a technical perspective. I’d like to see how the data plays out with the battle between bulls and bears at those two price levels. --- The BOJ's recent move—whether it really signals a global liquidity tightening—still needs further validation. Historically, central bank rate hikes tend to have significant lagging effects. --- Instead of guessing, it’s better to see how on-chain data reacts. These three nodes are indeed critical, but every time there’s always someone saying "this time is different." --- The 23 billion notional value sounds intimidating, but the actual settlement size is another matter. To clarify, volatility on options expiration day is usually overestimated. --- Interesting finding: December really is a month packed with events. From an engineering perspective, each variable should be analyzed separately.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 12-06 11:37

Just waiting for the big show on December 26th—$23 billion in options expiring, this move is bound to break through key levels. Let’s see how the bears manage to defend $84,000, haha. I’m actually a bit worried about the rate cut on the 11th—could it be a reversal signal? The real bombshell is the rate hike in Japan on the 19th. Once liquidity tightens, the crypto market will go crazy. With these three key events stacking up, next month is bound to be turbulent. We’ve definitely got to test that $100,000 mark—the bulls are counting on it this year. To be honest, with an 87% probability, they’re still talking about a reversal? The Fed isn’t that arbitrary, right? If we don’t see a major move on the 26th, it would be a letdown for that $23 billion.

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NFTArchaeologist

· 12-06 11:30

Oh my, how crazy will the options expiration on the 26th be? $23 billion is just sitting there—bulls and bears are bound to have a showdown.

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