#数字货币市场洞察 Lately, the more I look at the market trend, the more I feel it's time to start singing bearish.

First, about the Fed—rate cuts are almost a sure thing, but the problem is the market has already priced in this expectation. When the shoe finally drops, what do you think will happen? It's the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” routine all over again.

The technicals are lining up too. The daily chart just hit the 30-day moving average and stalled. That 94,100 level only held up because of some whale's release news and a few hot topics. But how far can this rebound really go? You need to have a sense of that.

Japan has also played its rate-cut card. If this momentum continues, funds that have already positioned for bearish sentiment won't hesitate. The market always likes to front-run; it won't wait for you to react.

Looking at the bigger picture—the four-year cycle curse of the crypto market still hasn't been broken. In 2026, it's highly likely we'll enter a bear market channel; in this context, any rebound is just a bull trap. “There’s no lowest, only lower”—this is especially true during a cycle transition.

By the way, the US stock market deserves caution too. With the aura of a certain former president, it’s already gone crazy in one run, and now it’s just a step away from all-time highs. Given the nature of capital rotation, we’ll likely see some profit-taking pressure around Christmas.

Based on these judgments, I plan to scale into short positions. News catalysts are resonating, technical patterns are in place, and the timing window is right in front of us.

Specific entry points for reference: $BTC can consider scaling in between the 90,000 to 91,500 range, using a 3%-5%-10% position incrementally. First target is 83,600, then watch 78,800 on further downside. For $ETH , watch the 3,060 to 3,100 area, also scaling in. First target is 2,660, and if it breaks, aim for 2,350.

That’s it for the weekend. The market is dangerous—take care, everyone.