#美联储重启降息步伐 Market Bets Escalate: According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of a rate cut in December has climbed to 94%. What does the $260 million in capital inflows indicate? Institutions have already made their choice with real money.

Even more noteworthy are the on-chain signals. Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges, and large addresses are clearly accumulating; total network hashrate remains at a high level, with miners undeterred by short-term volatility; the call skew in the options market has surged sharply—these moves often lead price by several weeks.

A macro liquidity inflection point, on-chain token concentration, and preemptive reactions in derivatives are converging along three lines. Historical experience tells us that when the probability shifts from 94% to 100%, the price is no longer waiting for you at the original spot.

The real window of opportunity is not after confirmation, but before consensus is fully formed. A pullback may be the last chance to get on board, or it could be the final test of conviction. Once U.S. dollar policy shifts, where will liquidity flow first? The answer may already be written in the current on-chain data. $ETH