How crazy is the market right now? Let me give you a number: 94%.

That’s the probability—almost a sure thing—reflected in the $260 million bet on Polymarket that the "Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December." Everyone is betting in the same direction. Everyone thinks they’ve seen the “good news” ahead of time.

But that’s exactly where the problem lies.

When expectations for a piece of news are hyped up to 94%, when all institutions, whales, and even retail investors have positioned themselves in advance, how much momentum is left in that “good news”? The answer might be uncomfortable: by the time the official announcement comes, its value may have already been exhausted.

The classic scenario goes like this—before the news is official, the market goes on a wild rally, creating an atmosphere of “about to take off.” But when the dust finally settles? That becomes the best time for massive profit-taking. This is what Wall Street means by "buy the rumor, sell the news." If you rush in now, you’re probably not waiting for the floodgates to open—you’re just helping those who got in early to cash out.

So what should retail investors do?

**First, don’t be fuel for the hype.** The crazier the market gets, the calmer you need to be. Never chase the top, especially not assets that have already priced in all the expectations.

**Second, watch the action, not the slogans.** Keep a close eye on whether BTC and ETH can actually break out above previous highs with real volume. If the price is just vaguely reacting to news, be cautious. Real liquidity coming in will show as clear, solid breakouts—not ambiguous moves.

**Third, split your capital into three parts.** At this level, only use a tiny position to test the waters, and always set a stop loss. Save your main ammo for two moments: either wait for a panic-driven dip after the “sell the news” event, or wait for clear confirmation that sustained capital is flowing in post-rate cut.

Remember, when everyone knows a “secret,” it’s no longer a secret. The market always punishes those who are a step too slow—and rewards those willing to think differently.