In December, both sides are making moves at the same time—one is injecting money, the other is tightening up, putting the market in the middle to be played.

Let’s look at the situation: On the US side, there’s a high likelihood of rate cuts, with expectations hovering there recently. In Japan, the central bank governor has already hinted that a rate hike might be coming.

One side is loosening and injecting liquidity, the other is tightening things up—completely opposite actions.

In theory, US rate cuts mean improved liquidity, more available capital, and naturally, the market could take off. Japanese rate hikes, on the other hand, could prompt arbitrage funds to flow back home, resulting in selling pressure and potentially suppressing crypto prices.

But here’s the problem—the overall environment is currently weak. In this kind of atmosphere, good news is often discounted or even ignored, while bad news is extremely damaging and can cause a sharp drop as soon as it appears.

So the real risk to watch for is actually Japan’s move. If a rate hike happens, funds could flow back and crypto prices might test lower levels.

Now is not the time to rush in with a full position or get fooled by short-term pumps.

Stay calm, wait for both policies to actually land, and make your move only after the direction becomes clear.

Surviving is always more important than betting on the right direction.