加密市场观察

Weekly Market Outlook: Broad-Based Recovery Across Crypto A Temporary Bounce or the First Signal of a Major Reversal?

After several weeks of persistent downward pressure and pessimistic sentiment, the cryptocurrency market has finally delivered a wide-ranging rebound. Yet one critical question dominates investor discussions: Is this surge merely a technical correction within a larger downtrend, or the first真正 structural shift toward a new bullish cycle?
To address this, we break down the current environment through three strategic lenses: the macro landscape, leadership asset performance, and on-chain fundamentals.

I. Macro Pressure Eases, Risk Appetite Tentatively Restored

The strongest driver behind this rebound is the visible improvement in the global macro atmosphere.

1. Shift in Rate Expectations
Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate policy have undergone a sharp realignment. CME FedWatch data shows traders now assign nearly a 90% probability to a December rate cut, compared to around 30% just weeks ago. This dovish narrative has pressured both the US dollar and Treasury yields lower, indirectly easing liquidity conditions for global risk assets, including Bitcoin.

2. Sentiment Gradually Stabilizing
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed out of the “extreme fear” zone where it remained for weeks. Panic driven by geopolitical uncertainty and macro volatility is fading, allowing confidence to slowly rebuild.

3. Institutional Flows Show First Signs of Reversal
After several weeks of persistent outflows, European crypto investment products have finally recorded modest inflows. While the scale is still limited, it signals one important shift: institutional selling pressure is easing, and capital may begin repositioning for possible upside.

II. Market Leaders Recover, But Structural Resistance Levels Remain Untouched

The behavior of BTC and ETH remains the most reliable indicator of the market’s underlying strength.

Bitcoin (BTC)
From its recent low near $80,000, BTC has recovered over 15%, regaining the $91,000 range. The $80,000 area now acts as a firm psychological and technical support.
However, the $98,000–$100,000 zone remains a critical multi-year resistance level. Unless Bitcoin breaks and sustains levels above this zone, the market continues to lean toward a technical rebound rather than a confirmed structural reversal.

Ethereum (ETH)
ETH reclaimed the $3,000 mark and is stabilizing near $3,200, alleviating recent market anxiety. Its rebound was supported by the successful Fusaka upgrade, which strengthened investor conviction regarding Ethereum’s long-term efficiency and value proposition.
If ETH can consolidate above $3,200 and extend toward $3,500, it would significantly reinforce the broader bullish recovery narrative.

III. On-Chain Activity Turns Constructive, Smart Money Accumulation Intensifies

On-chain indicators reveal deeper market dynamics that price action alone often fails to show.

1. Rising Stablecoin Liquidity
Throughout the November downturn, major stablecoins saw supply expansion of roughly $1.3 billionbcapital sidelined in anticipation of opportunity. Recently, some of this liquidity has begun moving back to exchanges, indicating a shift from caution to gradual re-engagement.

2. Ethereum’s Network Confidence Strengthens
ETH staking continues to rise, now nearing 30% of total supply. This reflects durable confidence in the network’s long-term security and economic utility, demonstrating an increasingly committed holder base.

3. Whale Accumulation and Long-Term Holder Stability
Active on-chain addresses for both BTC and ETH are rebounding. Whale wallets have been quietly accumulating during lower price ranges, while long-term holders remain resolute with minimal distribution.
Such synchronized behavior often precedes major bottom formation phases and signals the presence of strategic accumulation by informed capital.

Overall Judgment: Structural Repair Underway, But Full Reversal Still Unconfirmed

The crypto market is undeniably entering a period of stabilization and structural repair. Macro pressure has eased, leading assets have reclaimed key levels, and on-chain metrics reveal confident long-term participation rather than exit behavior.
However, declaring a confirmed reversal would be premature. A sustainable trend change requires:

• A decisive Bitcoin breakout above the $100,000 resistance zone
• Consistent inflows from institutions and large capital allocators
• Confirmation that the rate-cut narrative aligns with actual economic data rather than expectations alone

The peak fear of the recent correction appears to be behind us, and the rebound momentum remains intact. Yet the market is still navigating a delicate transition phase. For now, the most prudent interpretation is that the market is undergoing bottom-range consolidation and structural recovery.
Price action in the next one to two weeks especially as BTC approaches its critical resistance band will determine whether this is the start of a new bullish cycle or simply an oversold rally within a broader macro downtrend.