I saw Dogecoin’s price movement this morning, and honestly, I’m a bit confused. The key support level broke just like that, even though the news seemed decent, but the price just kept dropping. What’s really going on here?

First, let’s talk about the oddities on the news front. On-chain data shows active addresses are skyrocketing, and there’s also been an ETF application submitted, which should, in theory, be a positive signal. But what actually happened? The price didn’t go up; it dropped by 3% instead. Even more bizarre is the trading volume—over 400 million tokens changing hands per hour. What does this number mean? Most likely, some capital is taking advantage of the good news to sell off. Retail investors rush in on the headlines, but big players are quietly selling on the other side and cashing out.

How much real support can this ETF thing actually bring? Or is it just another round of hype? Right now, nobody has a definite answer, but the on-chain capital flows don’t lie, and it’s worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Looking at the technical signals, the upper resistance zone is concentrated between 0.166 and 0.187. For a rebound, it has to break through this range first. What about support below? 0.143 is the first line of defense, and it’s critical—if it holds, there’s still a chance to breathe; if it breaks, then we’ll have to see if 0.12 or even 0.1 can hold.

The issue now is that the MACD indicator has formed a death cross above the zero axis, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is clearly lacking, and bears are still in control. The price has already dropped to 0.1447, just barely above the critical 0.143 support line. With 400 million tokens being sold per hour, it’s really hard to say how long this level can hold.

The news catalyst seems to have lost its effect and has instead become a cover for some capital to exit. The technical signals aren’t optimistic either, so the bottoming process may continue in the short term. If you’re holding a position, you need to be clear about your stop-loss level; if you’re on the sidelines, wait for a clearer signal—there’s no rush, but if you lose money, it’s gone for good.