#美联储重启降息步伐 The latest data is out: US tradable Treasury debt has surpassed the $30.2 trillion mark. What does this mean? The Treasury’s wallet is being emptied at a visibly rapid pace.

Let’s look at a few key numbers. Circulating Treasuries stand at $30.2 trillion, total debt is $38.4 trillion, and the statutory debt ceiling is $41.1 trillion—leaving less than $3 trillion of headroom. This buffer is disappearing quickly. Why is the debt rising so fast? Two main reasons: In 2020, during the pandemic, the US borrowed $4.3 trillion in a single year, setting a record for the most aggressive one-time expansion in history; plus, over the past two years, high interest rate policies have sent refinancing costs soaring, causing the debt to snowball ever larger.

Even more alarming is the interest burden. For fiscal year 2025, interest payments are projected at $1.2 trillion, already the second largest item in the federal budget after social welfare, and potentially surpassing defense spending. In a high interest rate environment, every dollar the government borrows comes with even higher interest costs. This cycle is a bit frightening.

What will markets be watching in the coming months? First, the appointment of the new Fed chair—if the market perceives the candidate as lacking independence, long-term rates will react immediately, impacting bonds, mortgages, and consumer loans across the board. Second, the debt ceiling negotiations—if a political deadlock occurs, volatility will escalate rapidly. Finally, how the Treasury issues debt—the mix between short-term and long-term bonds will directly affect the yield curve.

$BTC and other risk assets are extremely sensitive to these macro variables. As fiscal pressures in the traditional financial system enter a new phase, the safe-haven and hedging attributes of the crypto market may be repriced. In the coming quarters, policy direction, interest rate expectations, and the debt ceiling battle are all core variables worth tracking closely.