Platinum in 2025: Why the Metal's Rally Might Stall

Platinum had a decent 2024—prices swung between $900-$1,100/oz, with automotive demand hitting a 7-year high and a 450k oz supply shortage giving it some juice. But 2025? The outlook is way less exciting.

Here’s the thing: overall demand is expected to flatline (down 1% to 7.86M oz), while EVs keep eating into the automotive sector’s appetite for platinum-based catalytic converters. S&P Global projects EV market share hitting 16.7% this year vs. 7% in 2023—that’s a drag on the largest demand driver.

Supply? Barely moving. Refined production drops 1%, though recycling bounces 12% to hit 2021 highs. South Africa’s output is still tanking, with Northam Platinum’s CEO calling it “irreversible decline.”

The kicker: expect a 539k oz deficit for the third straight year. Yet most analysts say “meh”—CPM Group predicts $900-$1,000 range, UBS targets $1,100 mid-year. Why? Those 3M oz sitting in storage stockpiles act as a price ceiling.

Jewelry demand ticks up 2%, and investment buying rises 7%, but industrial use falls 9%—with glass production tanking 57% after the 2021 display boom.

Bottom line: platinum might not have much upside in 2025 unless geopolitical shocks (like Russia sanctions) stir the pot.