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Why doesn't ALLO take off like JCT and MMT? Here is the real game.
Many expected ALLO to replicate the explosion of JCT or MMT after the spot launch on Binance. The reality? Quite flat. What was missed?
The equation is simple: selling pressure + market control + short appetite
Projects don't come to Binance out of charity. If the price goes up, great. If selling generates more profits, why not do it? It's all dependent on three variables:
Dissecting ALLO vs JCT
JCT: Only 30,000 units of the Alpha airdrop in circulation = selling pressure ~$1M. Launched first in futures (contracts), not spot. Controlled market? Yes. Result? Price pumping in futures generates realizable profits.
ALLO: 300,000 units of Alpha airdropped (~$15M selling pressure). More serious: 15 million tokens for BNB holders (~$10M additional at $0.7 each). Total in the market? Too much supply.
Moreover, after the fiasco of MMT, the shorts were not as encouraged. Less panic means less volatility.
But wait, why did MMT go up then?
The answer is counterintuitive: investment funds were not distributed to users on time. This meant low real selling pressure in the market during the launch. Added to this: tons of desperate traders shorting without analysis after MMT, the market makers found the perfect balance to pump.
The lesson
More hype ≠ better performance. More distributed liquidity ≠ more control. ALLO learned ( or not) that the volume of airdrop and distribution matter more than marketing. JCT got lucky: control + futures = winning game. ALLO? Too much floating currency, no magic.