Conversation with "King of Memes" Murad: 116 Reasons Why the Bull Market Isn't Over Yet

PANews

2025-12-06 02:31:55

Compiled & Edited by: TechFlow

Guest: Murad

Podcast Source: MustStopMurad

Original Title: 116 Reasons why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER

Aired: November 27, 2025

Key Takeaways

Remember Murad, the “call king” from the last cycle? The one who proposed the Meme Supercycle theory.

Now he’s back.

In this podcast, Murad shares 116 bullish reasons, data analyses, and on-chain signals, all indicating that the crypto bull market could last until 2026.

Murad believes this market cycle could break the previous 4-year pattern and last even longer.

Highlights

Bitcoin may go parabolic in the future, reaching a high between $150,000 and $200,000.
ETF holders have extremely strong long-term conviction in Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to last until 2026.
The stablecoin market is in a supercycle.
Most recent sell-offs have come from traders and short-term holders.
He disagrees with the notion of only a four-year market cycle; this cycle could extend to four and a half or even five years, possibly lasting until 2026.
The amount of liquidations on the upside (shorts) is significantly higher than on the downside (longs); there are more short positions than long positions.
None of the 30 traditional Bitcoin cycle top signals have been triggered, indicating the market has not reached a top.
The market moves in 2025, including the current price swings, may just be a ranging phase, laying the groundwork for the next leg up.
The max pain prices for Bitcoin options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, both much higher than the current market price.
Bitcoin bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (~$79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with ETF realized price.
Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below recent lows) is considered Bitcoin’s true market average price. Multiple price indicators overlap in the $79,000 to $83,000 range, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. Such price confluence is typically seen as a support zone.
Further analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price distribution reveals that the $83,000 to $85,000 range is also a critical support/resistance flip zone.

Podcast Content

Analysis of Recent BTC Crash

First question: Why did Bitcoin (BTC) crash from $125,000 to $80,000?

Firstly, some investors who believe in the four-year cycle theory engaged in massive selling, which intensified downside pressure. At the same time, the prolonged US government shutdown exceeded market expectations, adding macroeconomic uncertainty. Due to the shutdown, there was stress in the repo market and a slight equity sell-off also negatively affected BTC price.

Additionally, some smaller digital reserve companies and early Bitcoin holders sold due to contagion effects. To a lesser extent, certain so-called BTC whales expressed dissatisfaction with the latest BTC core update and engaged in “protest selling.” All these factors combined caused the atypical rapid decline in Bitcoin price over the past six weeks—from $125,000 down to $80,000.

Nevertheless, I will demonstrate through 116 reasons and charts that the Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to last until 2026.

116 Reasons Supporting a BTC Bull Market Until 2026

Technical Analysis & Price Structure (TA)

The recent 36% drop is not unprecedented. If you look at all retracements in this cycle, this one is the fastest, sharpest, and largest. But we saw a 32% pullback in early 2025, and a 33% one in mid-2024. These are roughly comparable to the current 36% pullback. So, relative to this cycle so far, this is not an anomaly.
A bullish hammer has formed on the 3-day candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. We need to watch for a bottom forming here over the next two to three weeks, but this specific 3D candle is bullish.
We’re still in a higher low pattern. From a higher time frame perspective, assuming $80,005 is a local low, BTC is technically still making higher lows.
BTC has just tested the two-week demand zone, essentially at support.
On the monthly time frame, we’re in a long-term ascending parallel channel. This channel began in 2023, and we’re still at the diagonal support, essentially a bullish structure. It’s a slow, steady bull market cycle, but the structure remains intact.
On the longer time frame, there’s another ascending parallel channel on the log scale, with diagonal support tracing back to 2013. This structure is still technically intact, and we’ve just tested its lower bound.
There’s another diagonal line that acted as resistance in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke above it in late 2024, tested it as support in early 2025, and are now testing it again as support—potentially another resistance-turned-support confirmation.

Momentum & Oversold Indicators

Weekly RSI is at its lowest point since the FDX crash. Previously, the only times weekly RSI was this low were at the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID bottom, and the 3AC/Luna crash in mid-2022. We’re roughly at COVID levels now, and it’s the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. If you match these RSI levels to the chart, they generally coincide with bear market bottoms or sharp panic drops like COVID.
The daily RSI is at its lowest in two and a half years, last seen in summer 2023. Data shows when BTC daily RSI drops below 21, future expected returns are generally favorable.
Another indicator is the distance from Power Law, which is in the “buy zone” now.
Connecting all the cycle’s retracement lows forms a perfect diagonal support. Someone predicted at $95k that the bottom could be around $84k, and we ultimately bottomed at about $80.5k.
BTC’s MACD on the 1D, 2D, and 3D charts is at historic lows.
The last three times the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA in this cycle were all buy opportunities. Historically, this leads to positive returns over 60% of the time.
Interestingly, looking at all times Bitcoin traded more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day MA, the only previous occasions were the 2018 bear market bottom and the COVID crash in March 2020.
Looking at 4 standard deviations below, this only happened once before during the COVID crash. We hit similar levels on November 21; this occurrence is less than 1% likely and signals an extremely unusual, sharp drop—indicating extreme market fear.
The LeaC indicator on the 3D chart just gave its first buy signal since the FTX crash, a sign that typically only occurs during bear markets or at bottoms.
Total crypto market cap is currently at the 200 EMA (exponential moving average).
Total crypto market cap is also simultaneously at horizontal and diagonal support.

On-chain Analysis & Capitulation Signs

Most recent selling pressure did not come from long-term holders and/or miners but from traders and short-term holders.
The percentage of short-term holders in profit is at a 5-year low, last seen in 2019.
Short-term holder supply is at an all-time low.
Short-term holder realized profit-to-loss ratio is also at a five-year low, indicating the market is undergoing full capitulation, especially from short-term holders and traders.
Short-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is starting to enter the buy signal zone.
Realized losses are the highest since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023—another capitulation sign.
Puell Multiple is at a discount level (Puell Multiple is current miner revenue divided by the 365-day average), typically associated with mid-term bottoms.
Recent on-chain data shows we’ve experienced the largest-ever exchange outflow. Looking at the last four such events, these flows typically mark the start of a bull market or the end of a bear market, often followed by significant upside in the coming weeks or months.
Additionally, the on-chain Realized Net Profit and Loss has dropped to the lowest level since the FDX crash, suggesting market sentiment may have bottomed out, setting the stage for a potential rebound.
SOPR is preparing for an accumulation breakout. So far, in this cycle, it hasn’t reached levels associated with cycle tops.
SOPR remains within bull market structure. Since 2023, it has never entered typical bear market territory and has consistently bounced near 1.

(# Stablecoin & Derivatives Markets

The stablecoin market is in a supercycle, with its size expanding steadily over the past three years. This is bullish as more stablecoins mean more dry powder for buying BTC and ETH.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is currently at its largest gap since 2022, further showing the market’s latent buying power.
Stablecoin SSR oscillator is at its lowest level since 2017.
Bitfinex BTCUSD long positions are currently in the buy zone, similar to prior mid-term lows in this cycle. Bitfinex whales are seen as “smart money” and have a strong track record of calling bottoms.
Stablecoin market dominance is at levels that coincide with Bitcoin cycle bottoms. USDT and USDC’s market share has soared, usually reflecting investor fear. The last three times USDT and USDC dominance hit these levels, the market was at a local mid-term bottom.
In recent weeks, the market has seen the largest long liquidation since the FTX crash. This is often viewed as a “capitulation signal,” indicating significant leveraged positions have been wiped out.
In terms of liquidations, there is significantly more liquidation on the short (upside) than on the long (downside) side.
According to CoinGlass, there are more short positions than long positions in the market.
The long/short indicator reads 0.93, indicating extreme fear in market sentiment.

)# Whale Dynamics & Institutional Behavior

Rumor has it that an “OG” whale who sold $1.2 billion worth of BTC over the past weeks has finally finished selling.
There are also rumors that Tether sent $1 billion directly from treasury to a Bitfinex address, possibly to buy BTC.
Some funds took significant losses on October 10. If they need to sell BTC or ETH now, such selling is more forced than voluntary.
The Bgeometrics demand index is in the buy zone (an analytical tool measuring Bitcoin demand), last seen in September 2024, which was also a mid-term bottom.
Additionally, on-chain indicators NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and NVTS (NVT Signal) are currently showing extreme oversold conditions, historically associated with mid-term bottoms.
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has hit 10/100, the lowest of this cycle, showing extreme fear.
Sentiment on social media is also extremely pessimistic, with many KOLs on CT (CryptoTwitter) sharing very bearish BTC charts.
There are also many bearish market videos on YouTube.
A flood of bearish tweets, articles, and blog posts are appearing.
Looking at traditional Bitcoin cycle top signals, currently none of the 30 have been triggered, meaning the market has not reached a top.

Price Patterns & ETF Flows

Last week, the CME Bitcoin futures $91,000 gap was filled.
The CME Ethereum futures $2,800 gap was also filled.
From a technical analysis perspective, there’s a pattern called the Domed House and Three Peaks, typically a corrective pattern, often followed by a new bullish wave.
Another view is that the 2025 market moves, including current price swings, may just be a ranging phase, setting the stage for the next leg up. Another pattern to watch is the “Four Bases and Parabola,” and the market may be in the middle of the fourth base. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could go parabolic to $150,000–$200,000.
The BTC-to-stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance is at a record low, considered a strong bullish signal.
Historically, after the 2019 US government shutdown ended, Bitcoin bottomed in four days. This year’s shutdown ended in mid-November, and if $80,500 on November 21 was the bottom, the timing is very similar—bottoming on the ninth day after reopening.
Put option buying dominates the Bitcoin options market.
The Put Skew indicator is rising, reflecting extreme market fear. Put implied volatility is also significantly higher than call IV.
Notably, this week saw record put option volume for IBIT (the world’s largest BTC ETF).
The max pain prices for BTC options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, both much higher than the current price.
The max pain price for ETH options in June next year is $4,300.
November 21 was the highest volume day in IBIT history, further confirming the capitulation thesis. Historically, capitulations come with huge volume—a rebalancing between buyers and sellers.
Not just IBIT—if you sum all BTC ETF trading volume, this was also an all-time high.
Bitcoin bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (~$79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with ETF realized price.
Additionally, $80,200 (just below recent lows) is considered Bitcoin’s real market average price. Multiple price indicators overlap in the $79,000 to $83,000 range, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This confluence is typically seen as support.
Further analysis of realized price distribution shows the $83,000 to $85,000 area is also a key support/resistance flip zone. Thus, Bitcoin is likely to find a mid-term bottom in this range.
November 21 was also the highest volume day ever for Hyperliquid BTC perpetuals, echoing the ETF volume spike and suggesting a possible mid-term capitulation. Capitulation usually comes with seller exhaustion and may mark the first return of demand.
Currently, 98% of ETF assets under management (AUM) are held by diamond hands—these funds are designed for long-term holding, not short-term trading or speculation. Even after a 36% drop, 98% of ETF AUM remains unsold, showing ETF holders’ strong long-term conviction.
The share of Bitcoin supply held by ETFs is steadily rising. Over the past two years, it’s grown from 3% to 7.1%, and could rise to 15%, 20%, or even 25%. This shows the Bitcoin market is having its “IPO moment,” with early OGs gradually exiting and ETF passive inflows driving accumulation. Fiat system money supply dwarfs OG Bitcoin holdings. By definition, BTC supply is limited, but fiat and ETF system money available to buy BTC is virtually unlimited.
ETH is seeing a similar trend. In recent years, the share of ETH held by ETFs is also steadily rising, regardless of price swings, reflecting institutional long-term bullishness on crypto assets.

(# Market Indicator Analysis

On November 21, Binance and Coinbase trading volume even surpassed October 10, which was already a very active trading day. This suggests the market may have seen full capitulation.
On Binance and Coinbase, for the first time in weeks, the Bitcoin order book has a bullish tilt, at least in the short term—a situation similar to April 2025 when Bitcoin bottomed.
Looking at funding rates, we see the first negative readings in weeks, meaning sentiment is still fearful. Many investors are shorting, expecting further price drops.
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has been trading at a discount on Coinbase, which pressured the price. Since November 21, sentiment has eased and price is normalizing. The discount seems to have bottomed and is returning to neutral, possibly another sign that BTC is near a mid-term bottom.
Additionally, BTC vs. gold RSI is at historic bear market lows. Historically, this happened during the 2020 COVID crisis, 2018 and 2015 global market bottoms, and during the 3AC, Luna, and FTX crashes. If you believe the BTC-gold gap will eventually close, the current market looks bullish.
Open Interest (OI) data shows we’ve just seen the largest wipeout in this cycle, with OI dropping from $37B to $29B—the fastest reset since the FTX crash.
For altcoin OI, October 10 was a massive shakeout—most asset bubbles have been popped.
DAT mNav has dropped to 1 or just above 1. This is a bullish sign because the “bubble” part of the market has been cleaned out.
Previously extremely overvalued assets like MSTR’s mNav have now fallen back to FTX crash levels. Historically, these levels coincide with mid-term market bottoms.
Similarly, Metaplanet’s mNav was once as high as 23 and has now dropped to 0.95. This correction shows the market is returning to sanity. Still, Meta Planet is borrowing against its BTC position to buy more BTC, showing underlying demand.
ETH’s mNav has also been sharply reduced, further evidence that the bubble has burst. Currently, mNav below 1 isn’t a bearish sign. Some say this will force some DATs to sell BTC or ETH to buy back shares, but game theory says the top DATs know that short-term trading damages their long-term reputation. They prefer to win by holding long-term.
The Bitcoin lending industry is still early, but is gradually developing with MSTR’s leadership. I believe this trend will eventually go parabolic, enabling MSTR to accumulate BTC more sustainably.
Bitcoin’s social risk indicator is zero, showing retail investors have not entered en masse. Some say this is because retail lacks capital, but I think this explains why BTC and crypto haven’t gone parabolic yet. Historically, parabolic moves are driven by a retail influx, which we haven’t seen this cycle—showing this cycle is mainly driven by DATs and institutions. I believe retail will return in greater force; it’s wise to hold now.

)# Macro & Political Factors

On the macro level, the Fed has begun cutting rates, even though inflation remains above 2%. We must recognize that this cycle’s low volatility and slow pace are mainly due to an extremely tight macro environment, the toughest for Bitcoin in history, making for a difficult market. This cycle started with rates at 5.5%, still above 4% now, showing tight conditions. Prior cycles usually had rates between 0%–2.5%, much looser. Even so, Bitcoin has gone from $15,000 to $125,000—already a major feat.
The probability of a December rate cut has jumped from 30% last week to 81%, which is generally bullish for risk assets including Bitcoin.
S&P 500 daily trading volume last week hit its highest since April. Historically, such volume surges coincide with local or mid-term market bottoms. If Bitcoin is to go higher, ideally equities also need to rally.
Similarly, Nasdaq 100 daily trading volume is at its highest since April. Several meetings on November 21 discussed this as a potential mid-term market bottom—such spikes in volume often accompany bottoms.
S&P 500 weekly volume is the third highest since 2022.
Nasdaq 100 weekly volume is also the third highest since 2022.
Nasdaq 100 is supported at its 100-day MA and has bullish MACD crossover.
S&P 500 put option volume is at the second highest in history. Historically, this leads to positive price performance 100% of the time a month later.
Last week, S&P 500 gapped up over 1% but closed negative. Historically, this leads to price increases three weeks to a month later 86% of the time.
The market is in a unique environment. Over the past four weeks, the VIX has risen steadily, but the S&P 500 remains within 5% of all-time highs. Historically, when this happens, six months later the price is 80% likely to be higher, and a year later, 93% likely.
SPX RSI broke below 35 for the first time in seven months. Historically, after such events, prices rise 93% of the time after three months, 85% after six months, and 78% after a year.
When SPX first breaks its 50-day MA, historical records show three, six, and nine months later, prices rise 71% of the time.
For NASDAQ, when the McClellan Oscillator drops below 62 (a technical indicator of market breadth), price rises within a week to a month most of the time.
AAI bull-bear indicator is below -12; historically, the last three times this happened, prices rose 100% after two months, three months, six months, nine months, and a year.
On November 21, SPXU (3x inverse S&P 500 ETF) traded over $1 billion. Each time this has happened, the market has risen a month later.
Last week, the percentage of oversold stocks surged, typically associated with local or mid-term bottoms.
S&P 500 put/call ratio has exceeded 0.7 for two days straight. Historically, in such cases, prices rise 100% of the time after two months.
Bitcoin price is highly correlated with global M2 money supply growth. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin’s rapid rise coincided with parabolic M2 growth. In this cycle, BTC’s slower rise matches tepid M2 growth. If M2 growth accelerates, Bitcoin could see another rapid rally. Broadly speaking, “market bubbles” often last longer than people expect. Comparing today’s market to the 1920s boom, late-1970s gold mania, Japanese asset bubble, and dot-com bubble, overlaid with NASDAQ 100 since October 2022, shows there’s still significant upside.
The S&P 500 has never topped globally when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50. Currently, ISM is about 48, suggesting the business cycle may be entering expansion—further boosting stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin.
Mega 7 indicators currently show resistance flipping to support. If Mega 7 is considered a market barometer, nothing unusual is showing. Since 2015, it’s common to retest support within four months after breaking previous highs; the market is now showing a similar pattern. Thus, the market is not abnormal or bearish—at least for now, it remains healthy.
Bitcoin price is correlated with global M2 money supply year-on-year growth. In 2017 and 2021, BTC’s quick rise was closely tied to parabolic M2 growth. This cycle’s slow rise matches steady M2. If M2 accelerates, BTC and the crypto market could see another rapid rally. Some signs show M2 is building momentum, but parabolic price gains require M2 acceleration.
If money supply keeps growing, Bitcoin price could gradually catch up and move higher.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a major factor in crypto prices and is now at a key resistance zone, which has acted as resistance/support repeatedly since 2015. From 2015–2020, it was mainly resistance; from 2022–2024, it was support. In early 2025, DXY broke below this area and is now retesting it from below. Typically, when DXY is at resistance, it’s an ideal time to buy risk assets like crypto.
The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December 2025, which is seen as bullish for risk assets including BTC. While policy impact isn’t immediate, QE generally helps crypto prices, while QT leads to bear markets. In 2013, when the Fed expanded its balance sheet, crypto performed well; in 2018, when the balance sheet shrank, crypto fell sharply. In 2020–2021, rapid balance sheet expansion coincided with the BTC bull market. In 2022, the Fed started shrinking its balance sheet and equities and crypto entered a bear market.
Many market analysts predict some form of QE or stealth QE will return in 2026, with the Fed expanding its balance sheet again. While this won’t be as massive as the post-pandemic expansion, it should still help the market. Last time the Fed announced QT, there was a “QT-QE transition washout.” BTC initially fell but then found support around $6,000 (ignoring the pandemic crash). As QT slowed and QE began, BTC rallied strongly.
There’s a theory that the Fed ending QT could trigger another “QT-QE transition washout.” The market may chop for a while, but once QE starts, BTC could rally again. This scenario may repeat.
From a higher political and administrative perspective, the US government is now fully supporting Bitcoin, crypto, ETFs, and stablecoins. This is possibly the most pro-crypto government in history, and this policy environment is likely to continue, providing long-term bullish support for the crypto market.
The Trump administration aims to drive economic growth, reduce debt through growth, and criticizes the Fed for being too tight. Overall, the Trump administration favors looser economic policies.
Additionally, the Trump administration is actively supporting the AI industry, viewing it as a US strategic priority. For example, the US has launched Project Genesis, a push for further AI development, with importance and urgency comparable to the Manhattan Project.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted in interviews that banking regulations may be loosened to increase lending to key industries. This could be in preparation for rate cuts and may further boost money supply. He’s stressed the importance of relaxing regulations and capital rules; similar views have been expressed by the OCC head.
The Trump administration is committed to lowering housing costs to unlock trillions in home equity for the economy and markets. This is a White House priority, aiming to turn this vast wealth into economic vitality.
The Trump family’s interests are highly aligned with this policy. They have large investments in crypto, including Trump meme coins and DeFi projects.
The Trump administration is discussing sending $2,000 stimulus checks to everyone, especially low and lower-middle income groups. In 2020, $500/$600 checks fueled asset prices. If this is implemented, $2,000 checks would have a major positive impact on assets, especially crypto. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said this may come as tax rebates, but regardless, it would be very bullish for markets.
China is taking steps to end deflationary pressure, which has weighed on its economy for years. Historically, when China’s economic stress index is high, some form of monetary easing follows.
Japan has announced a $135 billion stimulus plan, which could further boost global liquidity and asset prices.

Conclusion & Risks

While there are many bullish signals, we must also watch for risks. The four major current risks are:

The Mega 7 AI bubble in equities could burst suddenly
Bitcoin whales could accelerate selling
A stronger US dollar could pressure risk assets
The business cycle could reverse, with liquidity worsening

I do not agree with the idea of a four-year market cycle; I believe this cycle could extend to four and a half or even five years, possibly lasting until 2026.

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