Crypto Market Macro Research Report: Key Window for Macro Liquidity and Risk Repricing

Summary

Recently, the crypto market has experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin surging past $94,000 and regaining its footing in a key range. Market sentiment and liquidity have seen a phase of recovery, but this rally is primarily driven by improved macro liquidity expectations, capital returning after panic selling, and a technical bounce, rather than evidence of a systematic bull market. The medium-term trend depends on macro policy implementation, capital flows, and market structure evolution. It may continue to break out to new highs, maintain high-level consolidation, or retrace under policy and liquidity pressures. While institutionalization enhances long-term potential, it also makes Bitcoin more sensitive to systemic risks, intensifying pro-cyclical volatility. The altcoin market remains constrained and stuck in a high-risk structure. As the trend is still unconfirmed, the market is in a “repair–test–wait” stage, requiring both optimism and caution. If trading volume and the policy environment continue to improve, a new growth cycle is possible; if expectations fail, the rebound may reverse. Overall, flexible participation and risk management remain the core strategies to navigate uncertainty.

I. Macro Economic Overview of the Crypto Market

In recent weeks, the cryptocurrency market has seen a notable recovery in both sentiment and price after a sharp correction. As the benchmark asset, BTC once dropped to $80,000, with the market experiencing widespread panic, forced liquidation of high-leverage positions, and a rapid decline in short-term risk appetite. However, driven by changes in macro expectations and structural market responses, BTC quickly rebounded and returned above $94,000, with 24-hour gains of 7%–8% reported by multiple institutions. This price action reflects the easing of previous declines and signals the market’s attempt to structurally repair from extreme pessimism. This rebound is not driven by a single factor, but rather the combination of macro liquidity, market structure shifts, technical conditions, and capital behavior. From a macro perspective, changes in global monetary policy expectations have become a key variable affecting risk assets. The market’s anticipation of major central banks’ upcoming rate-cut cycles and expectations for marginal liquidity improvement have brought renewed attention to high-risk assets. With November PPI data far below expectations, inflation pressures remain subdued, and Federal Reserve officials repeatedly emphasize a “soft landing” as the core goal through 2026, avoiding premature tightening. According to the latest CME FedWatch tool data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10 has soared from 35% a week ago to 89.2%. On December 1 (US time), the Fed officially announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT). On the same day, the crypto market saw a collective rally. Historically, both US equities and BTC perform better in loose cycles or during periods of easing expectations, which is the sentiment shift being reflected now. Although macro policy has not definitively reversed, expectations alone are enough to drive asset prices. Furthermore, as high interest rates start to pressure the real economy, the market tends to price in policy shifts in advance, providing more imagination for risk assets.

Second, from the perspective of market structure and capital flows, this round of rebound has the typical characteristics of “panic flush + institutional bottom-fishing.” During the previous decline, exchange data showed massive forced liquidations of high-leverage longs and some shorts, with liquidity released in a concentrated manner. Historically, such phases are often accompanied by exaggerated directional moves and extreme sentiment, with capital flows reversing accordingly. Some long-term capital enters after sharp sell-offs, providing support in bottom regions. Additionally, when short positions become concentrated, rebounds can easily trigger “short squeezes,” further driving up prices and accelerating the rebound, forming a typical “structural short squeeze + capital reversal” pattern. Technical analysis also supports the rebound. BTC repeatedly tested and held support in the $86,000–$88,000 range, indicating a stage bottom and heavy chip concentration. The rapid short-term price rebound is also related to previous overselling. If technical support is established and paired with capital inflows, momentum and trading behavior typically improve. Recently, trading volume has increased in sync with price breaking key levels, indicating some buying is proactive rather than just short covering. However, since overall market volume does not yet show clear signs of a confirmed long-term trend, this rebound remains in an observation window and further validation is needed to determine if a higher structure can be formed.

Aside from BTC’s recovery, the market is also focused on whether the rebound will drive linkage and rotation into ETH and altcoins. The Fusaka upgrade activated on December 4 is an important post-merge upgrade for Ethereum. Its core PeerDAS technology increases Blob capacity from 9 to 15, enabling Layer2 transaction fees to drop another 30%-50%, and for the first time, ordinary accounts get “account abstraction (AA)” features like social recovery and batch operations. This upgrade not only optimizes data availability management but, more critically, paves the way for Verkle Trees stateless clients, reducing node sync time from weeks to hours. Historically, each crypto market rebound features a capital migration pattern from major assets → secondary assets → high-risk assets. The ETH/BTC ratio stabilizing and bouncing suggests capital may be rotating from Bitcoin to altcoins. However, such migration requires certain conditions: first, risk appetite must continue to improve, not just a brief emotional repair; second, the market must have sufficient liquidity, not just be driven by short-term trading; third, the trend of major assets needs to be stable, not highly volatile and directionless. Bitcoin’s rebound, while repairing market sentiment, is also prompting some capital to pay attention to ETH and major altcoins. ETH has risen in tandem and regained key levels, which is positive for market confidence.

It is worth noting that institutionalization is changing market structure. Over the past year, institutional capital has gradually treated BTC as a standalone asset class in allocation strategies, rather than just a speculative vehicle. This has led to capital preferring assets with clear attributes and stable value propositions, rather than chasing high-risk tokens. As a result, altcoins may significantly underperform BTC or ETH even during market recoveries. Meanwhile, changes in stablecoin market size, derivatives liquidity distribution, and funding rate shifts at exchanges will be key indicators of capital direction, but these currently do not clearly signal a strong cycle start. On the risk side, uncertainties affecting the market remain significant. First, the global rate cycle has not definitively reversed, and if monetary policy expectations are disappointed, risk assets could come under pressure. Second, if a technical rebound lacks volume support, it can easily become a “fragile rally” and quickly fall on macro news shocks. Furthermore, the altcoin market still faces systemic risks, particularly in the absence of risk appetite and capital absorption, making volatility easier to amplify. More importantly, over the past year, the crypto market has gone through a rapid stage of “valuation repair + new price highs”; in this context, investors are more sensitive to new risk-reward ratios, making it hard for the market to form a consistent trend consensus.

Overall, the crypto market is at a critical stage of structural recovery and trend judgment. BTC’s rebound reflects the transition from panic to repair, but does not yet prove a full bull market cycle recovery. If prices break key resistance with volume support, the market may enter a new trend development and reshape long-term price ranges; if the rebound is weak or macro pressures increase, it may return to the bottom range for retesting. ETH and altcoin performance depends heavily on BTC’s stability and continued capital inflow, not independent drivers. In the coming period, the market will continue to revolve around structural adjustments, macro expectation changes, and risk appetite fluctuations, with the trend direction only becoming clear after key range breakouts and capital confirmation.

II. Analysis of Macro Structural Opportunities and Risks

When evaluating whether the current crypto asset rebound is sustainable, relying solely on price action, technical signals, or short-term sentiment repair is not enough to build a long-term logic. The market’s future direction depends more on the institutional environment, capital structure, macro policy direction, and the evolution of the capital cycle itself. These factors can present both structural opportunities and potential risks. In recent years, as the relationship between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets has deepened, their price action is increasingly driven by macro liquidity and policy expectations. This means Bitcoin’s valuation logic is no longer isolated as “crypto-native logic,” but increasingly linked to rate cycles, inflation trends, asset allocation preferences, and even institutional risk budgets.

Recent research shows the correlation between Bitcoin and major traditional financial indices is strengthening. This trend suggests crypto assets are gradually shifting from “fringe speculative assets” to “mainstream financial assets,” with institutional adoption playing a key role. When Bitcoin shows high correlation with the S&P 500 or Nasdaq, it means the market’s risk pricing logic for it has changed: it is no longer a standalone category decoupled from macro cycles, but has become part of the risk asset basket. This change reduces Bitcoin’s diversification effect as an “alternative asset,” but increases its appeal as a “configurable asset.” Especially as institutional investors, ETFs, pension funds, or large asset managers get involved, the capital pool for crypto assets could structurally expand, making the market less dependent on retail sentiment swings. Behind these capital structure changes, ETF inflows, custody infrastructure improvements, and the establishment of compliance and reporting systems could redefine valuation ranges and risk premium structures. This means crypto assets gain broader funding sources and could see their volatility and risk-return structure converge with traditional assets. In particular, with improving macro liquidity and stronger expectations of falling rates, institutions may include crypto assets in strategic allocation frameworks as “part of risk asset exposure,” rather than just short-term trading targets. In this scenario, market rallies would have deeper funding foundations, not just rely on perpetual swaps and retail chasing. If this mechanism holds, it will have profound effects on future cycles. However, institutionalization and financialization do not mean the end of market risk; they may bring new structural risks. If Bitcoin’s risk characteristics become more like high-beta assets, then when liquidity tightens or risk appetite falls, the crypto market will be even more vulnerable to macro systemic shocks. In traditional financial markets, such assets usually perform poorly in downturns, and if crypto assets synchronize with them, risk exposure would expand rather than contract. This “institutionalization brings pro-cyclical risk” structure is an important issue for future market operations.

III. Outlook for the Crypto Macro Market

After the significant rebound of recent weeks, the crypto market has entered a strategic observation window full of uncertainty. Bitcoin has regained the $90,000 level and even tested higher, with market sentiment recovering from extreme pessimism to cautious optimism. However, whether the rebound can continue, whether a trend can form, and whether the market has sustainable upward momentum still depend on multiple drivers: capital structure, macro variables, policy changes, and market participant behavior. Combining the current environment, historical patterns, and market structure characteristics, several possible evolutionary paths for the crypto market over the next three to six months can be observed, each dependent on specific trigger conditions and behavioral feedback mechanisms.

One possible path is that the current rebound continues and amplifies, leading prices to test the $95,000–$100,000 range. This scenario typically occurs in phases where sentiment recovers, volumes increase, both institutional and retail capital flow in, and the market forms a unified directional expectation. If macro liquidity improves, monetary policy turns dovish, risk appetite rises, and Bitcoin breaks key resistance, a secondary acceleration trend can form. In this scenario, prices are driven not only by technical momentum but also by capital inflows and structural valuation repair. Another possible path is Bitcoin consolidates in the $92,000–$95,000 range, unable to sustain an uptrend. This usually happens when confidence recovers but inflows are unstable, macro policy expectations are unclear, and bulls are unable to break key resistance. Here, price fluctuations are driven by short-term trading, and market participant behavior is hesitant and game-theoretical. If funding lacks consistent reinforcement, institutions stay on the sidelines, retail is cautious, and derivative market leverage is neutral or low, prices are more likely to oscillate in a range than break out. A third path is another market pullback, with prices retesting support or seeing deeper corrections, possibly targeting the $85,000–$88,000 area. This scenario is typically triggered by macro risks, policy changes, or a reversal in market expectations. For example, if inflation rises again, leading to higher rate expectations, central bank rhetoric turns hawkish, geopolitical risks spark safe-haven demand, liquidity tightens, regulatory risk increases, or capital outflows occur from ETFs or institutional channels, risk appetite could be reset.

For altcoins or high-risk asset categories, although rebounds may bring short-term opportunities, risk levels remain significantly higher than for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Given their fragile valuation systems, insufficient liquidity, high speculation, and narrative-driven cycles, altcoins typically fall further and recover more slowly in structural market corrections. Only investors with high risk tolerance, deep project understanding, and short-term trading strategies may operate successfully in this sector, while ordinary investors should remain cautious when trends are unclear.

Overall, while the recent crypto rebound is strong, the trend is unconfirmed. Whether prices can break resistance, consolidate, or retrace will depend on macroeconomic data, policy signals, institutional capital flows, and market behavior feedback in the coming weeks. The rebound phase is prone to optimism and high return expectations, but the market still contains liquidity, regulatory, and structural fragility risks—any sudden event could reverse the trend. Until the trend is confirmed, optimism should be grounded in caution, and market participation should focus on flexibility and risk management, not on prematurely betting on a new cycle.

IV. Conclusion

In summary, this rebound has significantly improved market sentiment, rebuilt key technical supports, and released potential participation on the capital side, but there is still some way to go before a trending bull market forms. The market is currently in a “repair–test–wait” transition period, and whether upward momentum can translate into a trend breakout will depend on macro policy direction, sustained capital inflows, and market participants’ repricing of risk over the coming weeks. For investors with risk tolerance, phased entry and flexible allocation may offer strategic value at this stage, but must be based on strict position control and risk management. In the long term, if capital inflows continue to strengthen, the macro environment gradually improves, and Bitcoin breaks through key resistance, a new round of structural upside is realistic; otherwise, the market may still face consolidation and pullbacks. Prudent participation and rational judgment will be the main methodology for navigating uncertainty.