XRP enters a key turning point in December: historical average rise of nearly 70%, ETF institutional demand strengthens but long-term holders' sell pressure remains.

XRP, after experiencing a weak November with nearly 13%, enters December 2025 at a price of about $2.20, at a critical moment intertwined with institutional funding and long-term holder selling. Historically, XRP's performance in December has shown significant fluctuation: an average rise of 69.6%, but heavily influenced by the 818% big pump in 2017, resulting in a median return of -3.16%. The past two Decembers have only recorded moderate increases.

This year's key variable comes from the launch of the spot XRP ETF, attracting approximately $640 million in institutional funds, while the exchange's XRP reserves have declined by 29% over the past month, with Binance balances dropping to a 12-month low, indicating a reduction in circulating supply that provides potential support for a X-level rise. NoOnes CEO Ray Youssef pointed out that the initial trading volume of the ETF reached $59 million, indicating that the demand in this round mainly comes from institutions rather than retail speculation.

However, on-chain signals indicate that selling pressure is rising. HODL Waves data shows that holders who have held for 1-2 years and 2-3 years have recently been reducing their positions, controlling a large portion of the circulating supply. The dumping behavior has created strong resistance in the 2.445-2.460 USD range, with approximately 1.749 billion XRP gathered here. In the short term, XRP is consolidating in the 2.17-2.24 USD range, with multiple attempts to break through failing and triggering leveraged liquidations.

On the technical front, XRP is forming a double bottom structure around $1.772. If it can first break through the key resistance at $2.307, and then at $2.459, it will confirm an upward trend. An effective close above $2.459 will set the next target at $2.612 (0.618 Fibonacci level). Youssef believes that $2.60 is a realistic target to achieve in December.

Weekly indicators are leaning optimistic: Stochastic RSI has formed a golden cross, a similar signal has previously indicated a rise of hundreds of percentage points; the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting a buildup for a major market move. However, the short-term charts are in an overbought state, and analysts warn that recent false breakouts may continue to lead to liquidations, prompting spot investors to remain cautiously on the sidelines.

If ETF capital inflows weaken, or BTC and ETH experience a pullback, XRP may drop along with the market. The key support level is at 2.119 USD, and if it breaks below, it may test 1.772 USD.

Despite the severe short-term fluctuations, the exhaustion of supply on exchanges and institutional demand create a medium-term bullish outlook, making XRP's bottom structure more solid compared to the beginning of the year. The current market is still in a phase of directional choice, and December will be a decisive battle for XRP.