Network Data Comparison

In terms of active user data, Ethereum’s mainnet daily active users generally range between 400,000 and 500,000.

Source: Etherscan

For Layer 2, Base dominates with approximately 1.5 million daily active users. Immutable has around 300,000, Arbitrum about 260,000, and OP around 90,000. When combined with mainnet data, the total is under 3 million daily active users.

Source: TokenTerminal

Solana’s data shows significant growth starting in 2024, following a classic bowling alley pattern with S-shaped growth. Its daily active users now stabilize around 5 million.

Source: TokenTerminal

From the daily active user data, Solana has already surpassed the Ethereum ecosystem, with 5 million compared to 3 million.

This differs from the previous BSC data boom, which still relied on Ethereum’s EVM architecture and was fundamentally influenced by Ethereum’s design, thus not significantly impacting Ethereum’s dominance. However, Solana employs an entirely different architecture, similar to what Chimpanzee Inc. aims for, attempting to establish its own standard. If a large influx of users moves to the Solana ecosystem, it could drive project migration to Solana.

Recently, examples like PENGU launching tokens on Solana, along with DePin projects and AI Agent favoring asset issuance on Solana, highlight this trend. Asset issuance further stimulates DEX trading volume. This can be illustrated by comparing mainstream DEX data.

Source: DeFillama

There are slight differences across various statistical platforms regarding this data, but it does not affect the analysis. Using DefiLlama as an example, the trading volume of the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems is roughly at the same level.

However, in terms of fees, Solana holds a clear advantage, primarily because meme trading users are less sensitive to high transaction fees.

Project Revenue Data

The recent 24-hour revenue rankings show that, aside from stablecoins Tether and Circle, most of the top projects belong to the Solana ecosystem. This data serves as an expensive signal, reflecting users’ willingness to pay for products. It clearly demonstrates that Solana ecosystem projects are significantly more popular.

Another noteworthy point is that the revenue of the blockchains themselves is not the highest. For instance, Solana, Ethereum, and Tron all generate less revenue than mainstream applications on their networks. This touches on the debate between “fat protocols” and “fat applications.” Currently, it seems applications capture more value.

One possible reason is that applications on each chain are largely dominated by a few major players. As the ecosystems grow more extensive, this phenomenon should weaken.

Source: DeFillama

Fidelity’s Report

The Fidelity Digital Assets 2025 Outlook Report [FDA-2025-Look-Ahead-Report-V6.pdf] also compares Ethereum and Solana.

The report states that the Rollup-Centric roadmap aims to scale Ethereum while maintaining the usability of the Layer 1 blockchain. Despite significantly lower Layer 1 fees after the Deneb-Cancun upgrade, the team believes that although revenue from the Blob market may not immediately offset the revenue decline, this change will drive positive network effects in the long term.

The relationship between Layer 2 and Ethereum is mutually beneficial. Layer 2 benefits from Ethereum by providing low-cost transaction execution and further expanding ETH.

The following chart illustrates the trend in Blob volume and Blob fees.

Blob fees are viewed as a long-term positive driver of Ethereum’s network effects, particularly in helping Layer 2 attract more users to interact with ETH. This does not mean Ethereum is entirely foregoing future cash flows. Developers suggest that the most likely end goal is that, with significant growth in network effects, cash flows will naturally develop..

Source: Fidelity’s Report

Ethereum’s core developers have pointed out that low fees are a key factor driving the growth of Layer 2 users. It is expected that by 2025, more Layer 2 solutions focused on specific use cases will emerge. While Solana appears to have an advantage in the short term, Ethereum’s foundational strength may prove to be more solid in the long run.

Ethereum’s token is expected to remain stable after the Deneb-Cancun upgrade, with an estimated annual inflation rate of 0.22% in 2024. Ethereum’s scaling plan aims to gradually increase the number of blobs. The growing number of blobs, combined with Layer 2 user demand, may cause Ethereum’s total fees to surpass the annual ETH issuance.

The following chart illustrates the fees and transaction volume for Layer 1. The data shows that, although more transactions are taking place on Layer 2, the transaction volume on

Layer 1 has not decreased compared to before the upgrade, even though Layer 1 transaction fees have significantly decreased. This indicates that, even with Ethereum prioritizing Layer 2 improvements, a large number of users continue to choose Layer 1 for transactions.

Source: Fidelity’s Report

Considerations

The above analysis is based on the scenario with 5 million daily active users. However, what if daily active users increase to 50 million or 500 million? Given the different characteristics of both ecosystems, at a scale of 500 million daily active users, the two ecosystems might present a “division of labor and cooperation” scenario:

Solana is more likely to become the primary layer for consumer-grade applications, especially in high-frequency, low-value transaction scenarios like gaming, social media, and payments.

Ethereum (and its Layer 2 ecosystem), on the other hand, could dominate institutional services and complex financial applications, which involve high-value transactions.

In summary, Solana has a larger advantage in purely consumer-grade scenarios due to its Web2-like user experience and high-performance features.

However, from the perspective of long-term ecosystem health and security, Ethereum’s ecosystem, with its modular architecture and mature infrastructure, is more sustainable in supporting large-scale adoption. The ideal development path might be for both ecosystems to develop in their respective areas of advantage and jointly promote large-scale Web3 adoption. Of course, if the market grows by 100 times, ETH’s value capture might not increase by 100 times, with much of that value being captured by Layer 2 and upper-layer applications.

1. Solana founder’s perspective

2. Although Ethereum’s user base is smaller than Solana’s, it’s similar to how Apple phones, with low market share, still generate the largest revenue. Is Ethereum in a similar situation? Not quite yet. As the earlier analysis shows, Ethereum is actually capturing very little value through Layer 2, while applications on the chain are capturing a significant amount of value.

3. Looking from a long-term perspective, in a 500 million user market, Ethereum could dominate institutional services and complex financial applications, similar to Apple’s business model. A smaller number of high-value transactions could generate more significant economic value. With the maturity of the Layer 2 ecosystem, Ethereum will further expand its competitiveness across various value layers. Public chain revenue is more akin to paying for space or byte size, rather than asset value, which results in lower profitability. Upper-layer applications, however, have more flexible charging mechanisms and can capture higher value. Yet, through Ethereum’s scaling approach, if a prosperous Layer 2 ecosystem emerges, it could reverse the current issue of low value capture.

4. Referring to the “Chimpanzee Game” analogy, Solana resembles the “Chimpanzee Inc.” model, where the company needs to find its niche market. Currently, it seems to be the meme token trading market, and later, it may aim to expand into new, volatile markets like AI agents. Solana’s value capture might not be as significant even if it succeeds, as meme coin markets don’t rely heavily on proprietary architecture and have low switching costs.

With the development of wallets supporting multi-chain functionality, the meme market is not strongly tied to the underlying blockchain architecture. Ethereum has established a foothold in the DeFi industry, which is its “bowling lane,” as the migration costs in DeFi are high. This is where Ethereum has an advantage. The stablecoin market has high conversion costs, but its architecture is not tied to specific blockchains. Bitcoin’s high conversion costs represent a non-proprietary architecture, indicating that blockchain industry standards cannot replicate the “Chimpanzee Game” approach. Consensus seems to be a more important factor, with strong network effects.

1. Solana has already become an undeniable player in the blockchain space. Most mainstream cross-chain bridges and multi-chain wallets prioritize EVM and Solana chains. Blockchain is an open system, unlike the closed ecosystems of each application on the internet, and value networks can interoperate.

Users don’t have to be limited to a single ecosystem; they can trade meme tokens on Solana and engage in DeFi on Ethereum. Full-chain wallets or chain abstraction might become the new competition point, as full-chain wallets are the closest application to users, managing their private key solutions, user data, identity systems, and the resulting social networks, potentially serving as the wallet’s moat.

CM: Solana is a worthwhile investment in this round, similar to Ethereum in the previous cycle. Solana needs to be part of the meme market this time. Solana has not yet considered the importance of decentralization. Removing decentralization from the “impossible trinity” doesn’t give Solana a clear advantage. Over the long term, both ecosystems have their respective advantages in the market, but Ethereum’s irreplaceability is stronger. The next Solana may appear, but the next Ethereum is hard to replicate.

dz: Bitcoin, as a store of value, has no competitors. Ethereum does not require permission for the global financial market or to serve as Layer 2 support. Solana, on the other hand, is still a meme casino with low irreplaceability.

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