Japan's Lost Thirty Years has always been a mystery. Looking back more than 30 years ago, Japan's economy was brilliant, but at a certain turning point, it suddenly reversed downward. Economist Masaru Yoshitomi used "balance sheet recession" to explain this phenomenon, but I recently thought of a more fundamental perspective—it's essentially a people problem.

**The Illusion of Debt-Driven Prosperity**

What is the core logic of economic prosperity? Ultimately, it's debt-driven. Borrowing while developing and building produces impressive GDP figures, but behind this appearance lies complex entanglement of creditor-debtor relationships. Deposits are the most fundamental bonds, creditors are natural persons, debtors are financial institutions; financial institutions then lend money to enterprises and individuals, forming cascading layers of debt chains. Bonds, wealth management products, various bills, derivatives—these seemingly prosperous financial innovations are essentially sourced from this core deposit creditor relationship. So the essence of GDP is actually a number produced by mutual entanglement and expansion of creditor-debtor relationships.

**Population Death as True Disappearance of Creditor-Debtor Relations**

When Japan's economy was at its most prosperous, it was when people aged 40-50 years old were most capable. They indeed made money—whether through debt-driven mechanisms or genuine labor, this cohort accumulated massive deposits, government bonds, investments, and real estate. They became both beneficiaries and drivers of social progress. How wealthy were they? Wealthy enough that during the subsequent 30-year downturn, they could live comfortably on just pensions, deposits, and bond returns, even supporting descendants to become "hikikomori," wasting entire lifetimes with surplus remaining.

What does this indicate? It shows they held extraordinarily substantial creditor assets.

Now 30 years have passed. Those aged 40-50 back then are now 70-80, approaching life's end. This is crucial—**death of people is the true disappearance of creditor-debtor relations**. According to reports, Japan has indeed begun experiencing massive population deaths in recent years, with no heirs to claim the assets, and the government gradually taking over such assets. This is precisely a natural debt resolution process.

**Applying Japan's Logic to China's 30-Year Cycle**

Applying this logic domestically, the counterparts are those born in the early years of reform and opening up—specifically, those born between 1965 and 1979. They are recognized as the most hardworking generation, but also the largest beneficiaries. They similarly need to wait approximately 30 years, allowing the mutually entangled creditor-debtor relationships to naturally resolve through time and population attrition. In other words, when this cohort reaches 85-90 years old and gradually passes away, the enormous creditor assets they hold will truly be released.

When will that be? Around 2050.

At that moment, among today's post-90s and post-00s generations, those aged 35-50 will encounter the true dividend of their era. Through equal competition and effort, they will distribute these released enormous benefits, forming a new generation of beneficiaries, and this cycle is precisely the famous Kondratieff cycle—approximately 60 years.

**The Cruel Truth of Fate and Era**

From this perspective, a person's destiny is determined to some extent by birth year. If unluckily born in a downturn year, one can only say their luck was bad. The most typical example is those born from the mid-80s to 00s, who missed the "whatever you do succeeds" era dividends of the previous generation. Among them, the unluckiest might be post-90s—neither early enough to enjoy the early reform and opening-up dividends, nor able to wait until 2050 for their era to arrive.

But this also means every cycle passes. Waiting is not meaningless; it is history's laws operating.