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Polymarket explode! OpenAI IPO prediction becomes the focal point, with funds pouring in frantically

Recently, the prediction market on Polymarket regarding OpenAI's IPO closing market value has completely ignited, becoming a hot event closely watched by both the global crypto and traditional financial circles, with funds rushing in and the heat soaring, firmly occupying the top spot in platform traffic and trading volume.

Data shows that the total trading volume of this prediction market has surpassed 1.6 million USD, leading the tech IPO prediction track by a wide margin, and becoming one of the most active sectors on Polymarket. Focusing on core expected indicators, market opinions are highly consistent and emotionally charged: as of December 31, 2026, the probability that OpenAI has not completed its IPO has soared to 70%, a significant increase of 28 percentage points from before, with bearish sentiments on going public within the year continuing to rise. In the sub-market focusing solely on the dimension of “whether to go public,” trading volume has also exceeded 297,000 USD, with funds fiercely competing.

Why has the OpenAI IPO become the “top trend” on Polymarket? On one hand, as the absolute leader in the global AI industry, OpenAI holds phenomenally popular products like ChatGPT, backed by giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia, with its valuation soaring to 840 billion USD at one point. Its listing process directly affects the nerves of global tech capital. On the other hand, OpenAI is deeply embroiled in the “high burn rate, high losses” dilemma, with losses reaching 8 billion USD in 2025 and expected to soar to 25 billion USD in 2026. On one side, massive financing sustains its survival; on the other, the pressure to go public is mounting. This contradictory situation greatly widens the prediction betting space, as market opinions on timing and market cap vary greatly.

From the market sentiment, investors generally believe that it will be extremely difficult for OpenAI to go public within the year. Although OpenAI has contacted Wall Street investment banks and recruited IR teams to prepare for the IPO, multiple challenges such as high computing costs, elusive profitability, and complex internal governance make capital hesitant to blindly bet on its landing within the year. The 70% “not going public” probability on Polymarket directly prices in these real-world obstacles. Regarding market cap expectations, if OpenAI forces an IPO, most traders believe its closing market value will struggle to break 1.5 trillion USD, as the high valuation consensus has not yet formed.

This hot prediction market essentially represents a collective “vote” by global capital on the future of the AI industry. As a bridge connecting the crypto world and traditional finance expectations, Polymarket is visually demonstrating market confidence and concerns about OpenAI and the entire AI track through real-time trading data. As 2026 approaches, OpenAI’s financing dynamics, profitability progress, and listing actions will continue to stir this prediction market, with further intensification of fund battles. The subsequent trend is worth close monitoring.