JPMorgan: O bloqueio da Marinha dos EUA forçará o Irã a reduzir a produção de petróleo

Goldman Sachs reports that on April 22, JPMorgan Chase stated in a research report that if the U.S. Navy successfully implements a maritime physical blockade, it will force Iran to reduce its oil production. Analysts Natasha Kaneva and others wrote in a report released on April 21: such blockade measures will not only impose restrictions from a financial perspective but also directly constrain the total volume of crude oil exports, significantly compressing Iran’s space for trade through indirect channels, and forcing Iran to cut production in the long term. Iran’s onshore crude oil storage capacity is about 86 million barrels, with a current utilization rate of 54%, leaving approximately 40 million barrels of available capacity, enough to support about 22 days of oil exports. In addition, about four supertankers related to Iran are still anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, capable of carrying about 8 million barrels of crude oil, which can buffer the export delay to about 26 days. If the export channel is completely cut off, Iran will be forced to start reducing production in about 16 days; by around the 30th day, the reduction will continue to increase until crude oil exports are nearly completely shut down, with a daily reduction scale of about 1.9 million barrels. The analyst added: this blockade may enhance U.S. negotiating leverage, but only if the blockade measures are strictly enforced and maintained over the long term, which is expected to last several months. (Dongxin News Agency)