Dados da Polymarket: Probabilidade de corte de 25 pontos base pela Fed em dezembro dispara para 94%, volume de negociação ultrapassa 260 milhões de dólares

【Block Rhythm】Recent predictions on Polymarket regarding the US Federal Reserve’s December interest rate meeting have exploded in popularity. Data shows that the market is almost unanimously expecting a 25 basis point rate cut—this option’s probability has soared to 94%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged has been squeezed down to just 6%.

Even more interesting is that there are actually people betting on a “direct 50 basis point cut,” a rather aggressive move. Although the probability is only 1%, it does show that some believe a surprise is possible.

The trading volume for this prediction has already surpassed $260 million, indicating that everyone is very confident about this rate cut. The resonance between traditional finance and on-chain prediction markets, to some extent, also reflects the current market’s consensus expectations regarding the direction of monetary policy.