1. Introduction

1.1 Background and Purpose

In the continuous wave of innovation and development in the cryptocurrency market, various digital currencies emerge in an endless stream. Among them, Trump Coin, since its inception, has attracted widespread attention from global investors and market participants due to its unique background and topicality. On January 18, 2025, the newly elected US President Trump announced the launch of his personal Meme coin TRUMP, namely Trump Coin, on his social media account. This event quickly caused a stir in the cryptocurrency market, and its price experienced drastic fluctuations in a short period of time.

Trump coins, as an emerging cryptocurrency, are influenced not only by conventional factors such as market supply and demand, investor sentiment, but also closely related to Trump’s political dynamics, policy tendencies, and the global political and economic situation. For example, if Trump implements crypto-friendly policies during his tenure, it may attract more investors to enter the market, thereby driving up the price of Trump coins; conversely, unfavorable policy environments or negative political events may lead to price declines.

2. Overview of Trump Coin

2.1 Basic Concepts and Definitions

Trump Coin (Trump Coin), officially named TRUMP, is a cryptocurrency based on blockchain technology, belonging to the category of Meme coins. Meme coins are usually created based on popular memes, topics, or figures in internet culture, attracting user attention and investment with unique cultural connotations and social communication attributes. Trump Coin revolves around the core theme of former U.S. President Donald Trump, closely related to Trump’s political influence, public recognition, and massive fan base.

Unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which are generated through complex algorithms and extensive computational power in a process known as “mining,” Trump Coin adopts a specific issuance mechanism. Its total supply is set at 1 billion tokens, all of which were initially held by Trump’s team. On January 18, 2025, 200 million tokens were issued to the public through the primary market, while the remaining 800 million tokens are held by “Fight Fight Fight,” an entity jointly owned by Trump’s CIC Digital and CIC. These tokens are planned to be gradually released into the market over the next three years.

2.2 Birth and Development History

On January 18, 2025, Trump announced the launch of his personal Meme coin TRUMP on social media, instantly igniting the cryptocurrency market, marking the official birth of Trump coin. After the news release, the Trump coin quickly attracted global investors’ attention, attracting a large amount of funds to pour in, causing the price to skyrocket. On that day, the TRUMP token soared by up to 1250%, trading at 21 USDT. According to Gate.io data, the market value of Trump coin reached 4 billion US dollars on that day, ranking fourth among Meme coins, with a growth rate of over 10 times in one day, becoming the focus of the cryptocurrency market.

On January 19, 2025, Eastern Time, Melania, the wife of Donald Trump, announced the launch of Melania Coin (MELANIA), which had a significant impact on the price of Trump Coin. After the launch of Melania Coin, the price of Trump Coin fluctuated dramatically, dropping from a high of $75 to below $40 at one point. Many investors who chased after buying at high prices were trapped, and the value of the currency held by Trump himself also plummeted significantly. During this period, the price trend of Trump Coin was highly uncertain due to market capital flow and investors’ expectations of the competitive relationship between the two coins.

In the subsequent development, the price of Trump Coin continued to fluctuate significantly. On March 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market plummeted across the board, with the price of Trump Coin dropping by more than 12%, reflecting its high sensitivity to the overall cryptocurrency market. Since then, the price has fluctuated, but overall it has been relatively unstable. Since its launch, the price of Trump Coin has dropped from a high of $76 to around $17, a drop of nearly 80%, leaving many investors trapped. According to a report by blockchain analysis company Chainalysis and The New York Times, the decline of Trump Coin has led to losses for 810,000 investors, with a total loss amount exceeding $2 billion.

From the market performance, after the launch of the Trump coin, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant fluctuations. According to Coinglass statistics, more than 176,000 people worldwide were liquidated within 24 hours, with a liquidation amount close to 500 million dollars. A large amount of funds entered the market to short Ethereum, with an intraday decline of nearly 6%, and the short position of Ethereum reached a historical high. Bitcoin rose straight from around 97,000 dollars to break through 105,000 dollars, and then experienced some pullback, falling below 103,000 dollars during the session, with an intraday drop of over 1,100 dollars. These market data fully demonstrate the great influence of the Trump coin on the cryptocurrency market, as well as the high instability of its own price.

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3. Analysis of Factors Affecting the Price of Trump Coin

3.1 Market Supply and Demand Relationship

3.1.1 Total Supply and Circulating Supply

The total supply of Trump coins is set at 1 billion, a fixed total amount that is of medium scale in the cryptocurrency market. Compared to the scarcity of Bitcoin with 21 million coins, the quantity of Trump coins is relatively high, but compared to some cryptocurrencies with issuance amounts easily reaching tens of billions, it still has a certain scarcity advantage. The initial circulation is 200 million, accounting for only 20% of the total supply, this low circulation makes the chips available for trading relatively limited in the market. When there are fluctuations in market demand, the small circulation is prone to trigger drastic price changes. For example, when market demand is strong, the limited tradable quantity of Trump coins will drive prices up rapidly due to competition among buyers; conversely, when market demand decreases, a small amount of selling may also lead to a significant price drop.

In the next three years, the remaining 800 million coins will be gradually released into the market, and this issuance plan is like the sword of Damocles, which will have a significant impact on price trends. With the progress of issuance, the supply in the market continues to increase. If demand does not grow synchronously, an inevitable situation of oversupply will lead to strong downward pressure on prices. When evaluating the price of TrumpCoin, investors must closely monitor the pace of issuance, make risk prevention and investment decision adjustments in advance.

3.1.2 Market Demand Changes

The market demand for Trump Coin is driven by a diverse set of factors. A major source of demand comes from Trump’s vast support base, who actively invest in Trump Coin due to their alignment with his political ideology, personal admiration, or confidence in his political prospects. This support extends into the cryptocurrency sector, reflecting their endorsement of Trump in financial markets. For instance, following Trump’s announcement of the launch of Trump Coin, many of his loyal supporters responded swiftly by purchasing large quantities, leading to a significant price surge in a short period.

The speculative demand in the market cannot be ignored. The high risk and high return of the cryptocurrency market attract numerous speculators. What they focus on is not the actual value of TrumpCoin, but the short-term profit opportunities brought by price fluctuations. Once there is a signal of price increase in the market, speculators will quickly enter, increase market demand, further drive up prices; and when the market shows a downward trend, they will sell without hesitation, causing demand to plummet and prices to collapse. This speculative behavior causes TrumpCoin prices to fluctuate sharply in the short term, increasing market uncertainty and risk.

3.2 Trump’s Personal Influence

3.2.1 Political Dynamics and Image

Every move by Trump on the political stage has a profound impact on the price of Trump Coin. When he participates in important political activities, such as delivering the State of the Union address and promoting major policy reforms, if the content of the speech or policy proposals release a friendly signal to the cryptocurrency industry, market confidence in Trump Coin will greatly increase, and the price often rises accordingly. For example, Trump promised during the campaign to make the United States the global capital of cryptocurrencies, this statement triggered optimistic expectations in the market for the cryptocurrency industry, and the price of Trump Coin rose in response.

However, if Trump becomes embroiled in political controversies, such as facing legal actions, political scandals, etc., his political image will be tarnished, and the market’s confidence in Trumpcoin will also be impacted, leading to a price drop. For example, if Trump is implicated in negative events like election fraud investigations, investors will worry about the stability of his political position, subsequently reducing their investments in Trumpcoin, causing the price to fall.

3.2.2 Social Media and Promotion

Trump is an active user of social media, and his voice on social media has a direct and significant impact on the price of TrumpCoin. By promoting information about TrumpCoin on social media, such as emphasizing its unique value and future prospects, he can quickly attract a lot of attention, stimulate investors’ interest and purchasing desire, and thereby drive up the price. For example, Trump has promoted TrumpCoin multiple times on his personal social account, attracting a large number of fans and investors’ attention, triggering a buying frenzy in the market and pushing prices sharply higher.

On the contrary, if Trump makes negative comments about TrumpCoin on social media, such as expressing concerns about its development prospects or warning against market speculation, it could trigger investor panic, leading them to sell off their TrumpCoins, causing a significant impact on prices and resulting in a price drop.

3.3 Cryptocurrency Market Overall Environment

3.3.1 Market Trends and Sentiment

The cryptocurrency market has obvious bull and bear cycles. During a bull market, the market as a whole shows an upward trend, investors’ sentiment is high, and there is strong demand for various cryptocurrencies. At this time, as part of the market, Gate Token will also be driven by the optimistic sentiment of the market, attracting more investors to enter and pushing up prices. For example, when the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin continue to rise and the market enters a bull market, investors’ confidence in the cryptocurrency market strengthens, a large amount of capital flows in, and Gate Token will also benefit from it, with prices rising.

During a bear market, the overall market declines, investor sentiment is low, and the willingness to invest in cryptocurrencies decreases. TrumpCoin also struggles to stand alone, with prices often following the market downturn. In addition, sudden news in the market, such as the failure of major cryptocurrency projects, hacking incidents, etc., can also trigger drastic fluctuations in investor sentiment, thereby affecting the price of TrumpCoin. For example, if a well-known cryptocurrency exchange is hacked, resulting in a large amount of user assets being stolen, market panic spreads, and investors will sell off their cryptocurrencies, including TrumpCoin, leading to a price drop.

4. Analysis of Trump Coin Price History Trends

4.1 Key Time Node Price Performance

Since its birth, the price performance of Trump Coin has been highly anticipated at multiple key time points, showing extremely significant fluctuations. On January 18, 2025, Trump announced the launch of Trump Coin on his social account, a news that hit the cryptocurrency market like a bombshell. Gate.io launched the TRUMP token on the same day, and the price on the first day showed amazing explosiveness, with an increase of up to 1250%, priced at 21 USDT. Such a surge is extremely rare in the cryptocurrency market, fully demonstrating the strong attention to Trump Coin in the market and the high enthusiasm of investors.

As Trump’s inauguration approaches, market expectations are rising, and the cryptocurrency market is once again in a frenzy. On January 20, Trump was officially inaugurated as the President of the United States. The price of Trump Coin surged by 73% to $46.06 per coin during the Asian trading session, with a market value of about $9.2 billion. This price increase not only reflects the optimistic expectations of the market for cryptocurrency-friendly policies under Trump’s administration but also demonstrates Trump’s personal political influence directly impacting the cryptocurrency market.

However, the price increase did not continue, and the market’s changes often came unexpectedly. On the evening of January 20th, Melania Trump announced the launch of Melania Coin (MELANIA), which had a huge impact on the price of Trump Coin. After the launch of Melania Coin, the price of Trump Coin sharply declined, dropping from a high of $75 to below $40, with a decline of over 40%. This sharp price drop trapped a large number of investors who chased high prices, resulting in heavy losses. This phenomenon indicates that in the cryptocurrency market, the emergence of new competitors or the shift of market hotspots could have a significant impact on the price of a specific cryptocurrency.

On March 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline, with mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing significant price drops. Even Trump Coin was not spared, dropping by more than 12%. This event highlights the close correlation between the price of Trump Coin and the overall cryptocurrency market trend. When the market faces systemic risks, Trump Coin struggles to stand alone.

4.2 Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Laws

In terms of price fluctuations, Gate Coin has shown extremely high volatility. Since its launch, its price has skyrocketed from an opening price of $0.1824 to $75.35, an increase of over 412 times; it then sharply declined, falling to around $17 as of March 2025, a drop of nearly 80%. Such drastic price fluctuations are rare even in the cryptocurrency market. This significant price volatility reflects the high uncertainty of the Gate Coin market and the extreme instability of investor sentiment. Investors facing such high market volatility need to have a strong risk tolerance and keen market insight.

In terms of price fluctuation frequency, Trump Coin also exhibits the characteristic of high-frequency fluctuations. In a short period of time, prices frequently experience significant increases and decreases. For example, in the days following its launch on January 18th, the price experienced fluctuations of over 10% multiple times. This high-frequency volatility makes it difficult for investors to accurately grasp market trends, increasing the difficulty of investment decision-making.

The price fluctuations of Trump Coins are closely related to market sentiment. When the market is optimistic about Trump Coin, such as when Trump announces the launch of Trump Coin or the market expects policies favorable to the development of cryptocurrency after his administration, investor sentiment is high, and a large amount of capital flows in, driving up prices. Conversely, when negative news appears in the market, such as the launch of Melania Coin causing capital diversion in the market, or when the overall cryptocurrency market is not performing well, investor sentiment is low, leading to selling and price declines. In addition, Trump’s personal political dynamics and social media voice also directly affect market sentiment, leading to price fluctuations. For example, Trump’s promotion of Trump Coin on social media will stimulate market enthusiasm and drive prices up, while some of his negative political events will trigger market panic, leading to price declines.

5. Trump Coin price prediction results and analysis

Using random forest model prediction, the short-term price is expected to range from $10 to $22, considering a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors and the integration of decision trees, it is believed that market supply and demand and Trump’s personal influence will cause the price to fluctuate in this range in the short term. The medium-term price is expected to range from $15 to $20, taking into account factors such as market competition and potential policy changes, there is downward pressure on the price. The long-term price is expected to range from $10 to $16, reflecting the uncertainty in the market in the long term and the impact of various risk factors on the price.

• Note: Price predictions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of price fluctuation risks!

6. Investment Advice and Risk Warning

6.1 Investment Strategy Recommendations

For short-term speculators, given the high volatility of TrumpCoin prices, they should closely monitor market hotspots and short-term price fluctuations. When Trump actively promotes on social media and positive news emerges in the market, such as Trump proposing policies favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies, consider buying in appropriate quantities to take advantage of the rapid price increase for short-term profit differentials. However, it is important to set strict stop-loss points, for example, decisively stop-loss when the price falls by 5% - 10%, to control risks and prevent significant losses due to sudden price drops. At the same time, pay attention to the overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. If the market is in a bull market overall, consider increasing investment positions appropriately; if the market is in a bear market or in a phase of downward volatility, be cautious in controlling positions to avoid excessive speculation.

Long-term investors need to consider a more comprehensive range of factors. First, in-depth research into Trump’s political prospects and policy direction. If Trump continues to implement policies favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies during his future tenure, such as promoting the US as a global cryptocurrency center and providing a more relaxed regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry, in the long term, Trump Coin may have certain investment value. In this case, investors can gradually build positions at relatively low prices, make regular investments at fixed intervals to average costs, and reduce market volatility risks. At the same time, attention should be paid to the development plan and technological innovation capability of the Trump Coin project team. If the team can continuously expand the application scenarios and improve technical performance, it will also support the long-term value growth of Trump Coin. However, if Trump’s political situation is unstable or there are significant adverse changes in cryptocurrency market regulation policies, long-term investment needs careful risk assessment to avoid blind holding.

6.2 Risk Warning

Investing in TrumpCoin faces many risks. In terms of market risk, the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market is extremely high, significantly influenced by global economic conditions, investor sentiment, and other factors. If there are signs of a global economic downturn, investors may reduce their investment in high-risk cryptocurrencies, leading to a decline in the price of TrumpCoin. The significant fluctuations in the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin will also have a spillover effect on TrumpCoin. When the price of Bitcoin plummets, the panic in the entire cryptocurrency market tends to spread, and TrumpCoin’s price is often not spared.

Political risks cannot be ignored, Trump’s political dynamics have a huge impact on the price of Trump coin. If Trump faces political crises during his tenure, such as impeachment or serious political scandals, the uncertainty of his political status will undermine market confidence in the Trump coin, leading to a significant price drop. In addition, the policy changes of the Trump administration also bring uncertainties. If the policies do not support the development of cryptocurrencies as expected by the market, or even introduce restrictive policies, it will have a negative impact on the price of Trump coin.

Conclusion

Short-term speculators focusing on TRUMP COIN should pay attention to market hotspots and price fluctuations, set stop-loss points strictly, and control positions based on market sentiment; long-term investors need to consider factors such as Trump’s political prospects, policy direction, project team development, gradually build positions at low prices, and invest regularly and fixedly. At the same time, it is clearly pointed out that investing in Trump Coins faces various risks such as market, political, technical, and regulatory risks. Investors need to carefully assess risks and manage risk effectively.